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Andrew Holness and Mark Golding would be locked in a very close contest if Jamaicans could directly vote for Prime Minister today.
That’s a key finding of the latest Nationwide Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools.
The poll shows that PNP President, Mark Golding, has significantly narrowed the gap in the minds of the electorate when the hypothetical vote for the country’s chief executive is considered.
Ricardo Brooks reports.
A year ago in September 2023, Andrew Holness was the clear front runner for Jamaicans when they were asked who would get their vote if they could directly elect the Prime Minister.
Back then, Holness led a group of seven prominent politicians by double digits. He was almost 15-percentage points ahead of Golding. Mark Golding placed a distant fourth on that list.
Only 12% of respondents gave the PNP President their vote. 26.8% opted for Holness.
But, oh, what a difference a year makes.
In a direct hypothetical match up between Holness and Golding for Prime Minister, 52.4 percent of respondents say they would vote for the incumbent Prime Minister.
Forty seven point six percent say Mark Golding would receive their direct vote. That’s roughly a 5-percentage point difference.
But it must be noted that these new results indicate the PNP President has improved his standing on the hypothetical question by 35-percentage points over the last 12-months.
That’s a big movement in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3-percent.
Younger voters aged 18 to 24 years old are partly powering Holness’ lead on the hypothetical question, with 56% of that demographic saying they would vote directly for him.
Fifty five percent of voters 25 to 34 years old also would give Holness the nod, and nearly 58% of voters 35 to 44 say Holness would be their choice for Prime Minister.
But most middle aged voters say they would vote directly for Golding.
Fifty six percent of voters aged 45 to 54 years would give him their vote, so too would 54% of voters 55 to 64 years old.
There’s a close divide among voters over 65 years old, with 50% choosing Golding and 49% choosing Holness.
When affiliation is considered, unaffiliated voters break in favour of Holness, preferring the Prime Minister 58-percent to 41-percent for Mark Golding.
Ninety one percent of PNP supporters say they would go with Golding, while 84% of Labourites say Holness would get the green light.
As it stands now, Section 70 of Jamaica’s Constitution says the Governor General shall appoint as Prime Minister the member of the House of Representatives who in his judgment is best able to command the confidence of a majority of its members.
By convention, that person has been the leader of the majority party.
The Nationwide Bluedot polls powered by Total Tools were conducted between September 6th and 19th.
It sampled 1,246 respondents.
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