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The governing Jamaica Labour Party, JLP, has opened up a six-point lead over the Opposition People’s National Party, PNP.
That’s according to the Nationwide\Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools.
The results suggest the JLP would win a third term in office if the electorate was called upon to cast their ballot today.
Chevon Campbell has been going through the numbers.
The Nationwide/Bluedot poll was conducted between January 21 and February 1. Fifteen-hundred registered voters were surveyed across all 63 constituencies.
They were asked if elections were being held today, which political party’s candidate would they vote for. A plurality of voters, 34 per cent, say they intend to vote for the JLP. Only 28 per cent would cast their vote for the PNP.
It’s a six-point advantage in favour of the governing Labour Party. This is well outside the margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 per cent.
However, the political fates of both parties might still be in the hands of the 38 per cent of the electorate that remains undecided.
The polls also suggest Andrew Holness’ JLP has improved its standing among voters. The JLP has gained three points since the last survey conducted in September of 2024. However, the PNP has stalled, with voter intention in their favour remaining unchanged for the same period.
In terms of gender, the JLP remains a more attractive choice for women at 36 per cent compared to the PNP’s 32 per cent. The PNP has an eight-point advantage among men. That’s 32 per cent versus 24 per cent for the JLP.
Broken down by age, the polls suggest a generational shift toward the JLP.
The PNP enjoys an advantage only among the oldest voters, those aged 65 years and older. Comparatively, the JLP has a massive lead among young Jamaicans.
Thirty-six per cent of those aged 18-to-24 prefer the JLP versus only 21 per cent who favour the PNP.
The JLP enjoys healthy margins of at least three points in all other age groups. This is except for those aged 55-to-64. Among those voters, there’s a tie of 38 per cent.
A breakdown by parish puts the JLP ahead in 10 of the fourteen.
The party enjoys the greatest advantage in the parishes of St. James and Portland, where there’s a 21 point margin in their favour.
There’s a statistical tie between the parties in four parishes. These are St. Elizabeth, Manchester, Kingston and St. Andrew.
The PNP enjoys overwhelming support in the parish of Hanover, with 64 per cent of residents there giving them the nod. This is compared to only 14 per cent for the JLP.
The polls suggest the messaging of the PNP is starting to lose ground among voters as the date for the next general elections draws closer.
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