8 months ago
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Small business owners and entrepreneurs, the countdown is on. We have 140 precarious days left in this already infamously historic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and we all need to be doubling down.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, has warned that there is an 85 per cent chance this hurricane season will be more active than normal. Unfortunately, that prediction has already materialised.
Though we can’t control the weather, we can control our preparations and responses. In this regard, knowledge is power. Therefore, the goal of this article is to provide small businesses, entrepreneurs, and stakeholders with crucial nuggets to empower them to make informed decisions, and revamp risk mitigation strategies and plans now.
Eighty per cent of the nation’s employment depends on the micro, small and medium-size businesses, or MSMEs. Therefore, the resilience of the sector to disasters is critical.
From a disaster risk planning perspective, we must heed the concern that the region will be negatively affected by La Niña later in the hurricane season. In simple terms, La Niña is a climate pattern that deviates from normal conditions.
La Niña usually varies in intensity and lasts several months to a year. The last major La Niña episode was almost a decade ago, in 2016. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are usually warmer than normal in the South, and cooler than normal in the North. Here’s the show-stopper: hurricane seasons are worse because of warmer ocean temperatures and reduced Atlantic trade winds that cause less wind-shear. You may have heard the term wind shear mentioned a lot recently, particularly its ability to weaken and disrupt hurricanes. La Niña, dreadfully, creates an environment that is more favourable for storms to form, organise and become more intense.
Gilbert and Charlie
One of the worst episodes of La Niña, which is eerily highlighted on NOAA’s website as an extreme event, was in 1988-1989 when the sea-surface temperatures deviated as much as 7°F outside normal range. It was a La Niña year Jamaica will never forget.
September 12, 1988 is deeply engraved in our national archives, as the day Hurricane Gilbert devastated our island, causing catastrophic damage as a slow-moving and intense Category 3 hurricane, with the 15 mile-wide eyewall passing over Jamaica.
It’s a day and night I will never forget. It made landfall on the east coast at 10 a.m. just shy of Category 4 strength, with the eyewall traversing the entire length of the island until finally leaving at 6 p.m. The winds and rains of the outer bands remained for hours. Few roofs withstood the nearly half-day of sustained battering at wind speeds of between 75mph and 127mph throughout many parishes. It was the second most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic basin, in terms of barometric pressure.
Gilbert went on to devastate Mexico as a monster Category 5 hurricane. When the storm clouds settled, 45 people had perished in Jamaica, with the country suffering a staggering US$800 million in destruction. It was the first major hurricane to make a direct hit on Jamaica since 1951. Which brings us to the other infamous hurricane – Charlie. Hurricane Charlie pummelled Jamaica on August 18, 1951. That was also a La Niña year. Charlie, though less intense than Gilbert, and passing eight miles south of the island, was more deadly. It claimed 154 lives and cost us over US$200 million in damage.
At the risk of being the bearer of bad news, it is imperative for us to be aware that La Niña has not yet developed. It is projected to develop in upcoming months, potentially creating an extremely dangerous situation for us in the region in the peak of hurricane season. This concern has been echoed by every major weather and climate publication, and mainstream international media over the past few days.
Beryl – the ominous warning
Which takes us to historic Hurricane Beryl. Baffling meteorologists around the world, Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and now holds the record as the earliest Category 5 storm on record, leaving at least eight people dead, from the Windward Islands to the Mexico’s Yucatán peninsula.
We are still reeling from the damage caused by Hurricane Beryl, which claimed at least two lives in Jamaica, as it dealt a destructive side-swipe to our south coast as a strong Category 4 hurricane. Beryl was not a direct hit on Jamaica. It would have been much worse if the eye of the storm made landfall and tracked across the length of the island, as did Hurricane Gilbert. Also, the wind shear helped to reduce the storm’s intensity before reaching Jamaica.
Still, we are in unprecedented times. We must therefore use history and our recent experience with Hurricane Beryl to inform our planning for the near future:
Development timeline of Hurricane Beryl:
• Friday 28, June 5 p.m. – Tropical depression (35mph)
• Friday at 11 p.m. – Tropical storm (40mph)
• Saturday 29, June 5 p.m. – Category 1 hurricane (75mph)
• Sunday 30, June 8 a.m. – Category 3 hurricane (120mph)
• Monday 1, July 11 p.m. – Category 5 hurricane (160mph)
It took only 42 hours for Hurricane Beryl to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, an astonishing occurrence which has only happened six other times over the last 100 years or so. A huge lesson – we won’t have much lead time.
Readers should bear in mind that major storms do not usually develop in the Atlantic hurricane season until late August and September. Therefore, we must make every day in July count. We need to plan for the worst, as we pray for the best.
One love!
Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA, and a certified trainer in entrepreneurship.yaneek.page@gmail.com
English (US) ·