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Travel and tourism interests expect a reduction in tourist arrivals in 2024 but say the flows will still outperform the pre-pandemic benchmark.
The sector’s fortunes were affected by Hurricane Beryl in July and a previous travel advisory from the United States.
“Beryl did not help, and we lost an important week because it was the July 4th holiday but we have recovered, not to 2023 levels, which was an exceptional year, but we are back to our benchmark year of 2019,” said president of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association, JHTA, Robin Russell, on Wednesday at the Bank of Jamaica’s quarterly press conference, where he was invited by the BOJ governor to speak on the matter.
The central bank usually does its monetary policy briefing from its headquarters at Nethersole Place on the waterfront in Kingston, but this time it chose the resort city of Montego Bay as the venue. Montego Bay is seen as Jamaica’s tourism capital.
Russell said the year started with the release of a negative travel advisory issued by the United States government, suggesting that its citizens avoid travel to Jamaica, for safety concerns. The advisory was broadcast heavily in the media, he said.
On July 25, the US State Department updated the advisory “to reflect additional information on crime and health care”. It still tells its citizens to “reconsider travel to Jamaica due to crime”. The department offers four levels of intensity in its travel advisories.
“The travel advisory that is out now, the language is softer”, but “we are hoping that, by next quarter, you will see an improvement,” Russell said.
“We are optimistic that the rest of the year will be good, but not as great as 2023,” the JHTA president added.
Behind those projections are the entities like Playa Resorts and Hotels, which operates five hotels in Jamaica under the Jewel and Hilton brands. Already, Playa has seen a 19 per cent dip in revenue up to June, while occupancy levels were down from about 82 per cent to 72 per cent. The hotel group expects those numbers to weaken further.
“So, unless something substantially changes, I don’t expect any improvement until we start lapping these effects in second quarter of next year,” said Playa’s Chief Financial Officer Ryan Hymel in an earnings call earlier this month.
In July, travel through Jamaica’s two largest local international airports dipped 2.0 per cent in Kingston and nearly 14 per cent in Montego Bay, year on year. The airport operators blamed Beryl, which caused diverted and cancelled flights. Both airports shuttered from July 2 at midnight, reactivating operations on July 4 in Montego Bay and July 5 in Kingston.
Last year, Jamaica recorded 4.1 million visitors, which was 25 per cent better than 2022. The travel advisory is expected to take a bite out of those numbers.
Playa President Bruce Wardinski said the hotel group has been working alongside local tourism interests in lobbying efforts to get the language of the US travel advisory adjusted. These advisories are adjusted periodically, based on new information in source nations.
Wardinski said he met with the Jamaican ambassador to the United States, liaised with the Jamaica Tourist Board, and held discussions with executive chairman of the Sandals resort chain, Adam Stewart.
“We have had some other back channel with some other hotel operators, colleagues, and competitors within Jamaica,” said Wardinski.
“It’s challenging; it’s a challenging situation,” he said. “We are hopeful to get progress. We’re hopeful that people see that whatever is included in the advisory really doesn’t have any impact on the north coast of Jamaica, which is where the tourism zone is. Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Negril – that’s where we’re located.”
The US State Department’s travel advisories have four levels of intensity: the first tells American citizens to operate as normal; the second advises increased caution; the third level, to reconsider travel; and the fourth, to avoid travel. Jamaica has been at Level 3 since 2022.
English (US) ·