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Consumer confidence in the economy hit an all-time high in the quarter ending March, surpassing the record set in 2019, months before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, according to the latest JCC Business and Consumer Confidence Indices released on Tuesday.
Business confidence, on the other hand, normalised in March from recent Christmas highs.
Looking at consumer confidence, that index reached 183.7 points, which passed the previous peak of 183.4 points in 2019. Confidence increased 8.7 points over December 2024 and 9.0 points more than the March 2024 quarter.
Increased entrepreneurship and participation in the tourism sector accounted for the rise in confidence, said Don Anderson, founder of Market Research Services Limited (MRSL), which conducts the survey for the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC).
“We can see that what is driving that largely is confidence amongst consumers in the tourist-related industry and tourist-related businesses and tourist-related areas, less so in Kingston,” said Anderson.
Some 600 consumers were interviewed for the survey, as well as 100 businesses.
The survey indicated a 4.5 per cent increase among consumers who reported favourable business conditions in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, there was a 6.0 per cent increase among consumers who anticipated an improvement in business conditions over the same period. The survey also noted a significant rise in the number of individuals planning to purchase a home compared to the previous year. Jobs, however, remain elusive.
“People are expecting to earn more money, but we make the point quite clearly that they’re not seeing jobs being created to the extent that would impact their household income,” Anderson said. “People are becoming more entrepreneurial in their spirit, and this is where they’re depending on their own ability to earn money, rather than depending on businesses to provide them with jobs.”
Business confidence was at 132.5 points in March, which represents a decrease of 16.8 points from December and 7.2 points from the 139.7 points in March 2024.
“There was a whole heap of hype around in that Christmas period and a number of things had taken place that had pushed business confidence up by 12 percentage points … . Therefore, if you wish, the fourth quarter [of 2024] is an outlier; it went up to 149, and it has fallen back,” Anderson said.
Fewer businesses are meeting profit expectations. According to the survey, 16.4 per cent of businesses reported better-than-expected profits in the first quarter of 2025, a decline from 25.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024.
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