3 weeks ago
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The Holness administration is locked in a close battle for a third term in government, with the electorate evenly divided on whether they deserve it.
Fifty percent of Jamaicans say yes, 50 percent say no.
That’s according to the latest Nationwide/Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools.
The result comes just eight months before the electorate is due to be called to the polls for a General Election.
Ricardo Brooks has been going through the data.
Labourites have been telling anyone who will listen that a third term is loading.
In fact, they say it’s imminent.
They say Andrew Holness has done enough to warrant him being returned to Jamaica House for another five years.
But when the Bluedot pollsters asked 1,500 Jamaicans whether they think the Holness administration deserves the fabled third term, public opinion was split right down the middle.
50.1 percent said yes, and 49.9 percent said no. That represents an even split of 50/50.
For Labourites seeking a green lining in the data, they can take some solace in the fact that those opposed to the third term have fallen by two percentage points from September 2024.
At that time, 52 percent were opposed to the third term.
The pollsters opine that the current even divide suggests a dynamic political landscape that could easily sway in either the JLP or PNP’s favour.
Considering the 2.5 percent margin of error in these polls, it’s not hard to see why.
When gender is considered, women are reflecting the JLP’s best hope of continuing in government with a small majority, 52 percent, saying Holness deserves another go at the helm. Forty-eight percent of women are opposed.
That’s a four percentage point difference.
It would appear men are saying time come. 53 percent of men want to see the back of the Holness government, while 47 percent say they should continue into a third term.
That’s a six percentage point difference.
The bases of both political parties are also showing significant levels of polarisation on the question of a third term for the JLP.
An overwhelming 91 percent of PNP supporters say the Holness government should be sent packing, while an equal number of JLP supporters say the government should be returned to office.
Nine percent of comrades would support a third term, while nine percent of Labourites are opposed.
But it is among unaffiliated voters where warning bells start ringing for the JLP. A clear majority, 60 percent of unaffiliated voters say Holness and his government do not deserve a third term.
Only 40 percent of unaffiliated voters say the Holness administration should be returned to office.
The Nationwide/Bluedot poll was conducted between January 21 and February 1.
The question now is, third term or time come? Only the voters can decide.
Meanwhile, support for a third term for the Holness administration was strongest among voters age 18 to 24 years old.
Fifty three percent of that co-hort would give the government a third term, while 47 percent say no.
That’s a six percentage point gap, well outside the margin of error.
The JLP’s third term ambition faces the most trouble with middle aged voters.
Fifty three percent of voters age 45 to 54 say the government does not deserve a third term. 47 percent say yes.
Voters 55 to 64 are virtually evenly divided with 51 percent saying yes, and 49 percent saying no.
Considering the margin of error of 2.5 percent, that difference is negligible.
Voters 65 years and older are also tied down the middle, 50 percent saying yes and 50 percent saying no.
The pollsters opine that the age break down shows a fluctuating pattern of support and opposition across all age groups.
They say younger and older voters showed more balanced views, while middle aged voters were likely to lean towards change.
English (US) ·