1 month ago
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It’s a statistical dead heat!
If general elections were held today, the Jamaica Labour Party, JLP, and People’s National Party, PNP, would be locked in a very close race for Jamaica House.
The latest Nationwide/Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools, found that 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the JLP, while 28 per cent would cast their ballot for the PNP.
That’s within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3 per cent. The pollsters described the JLP’s lead as “negligible”. If the poll findings hold on election day, the balance in the parliament would be 33 seats for the JLP and 30 seats for the PNP.
But there are signs the PNP is in a much better place than it was last year.
A year-on-year analysis of the parties’ standings shows growing momentum for the opposition PNP. The party has moved from 25 per cent support in September 2023 to 28 per cent support in September 2024. That’s a movement of three percentage points.
The JLP’s momentum has largely stalled, only moving one percentage point from September 2023 to September 2024. The party registered 30 per cent support last year and now has 31 per cent this year.
PNP president Mark Golding also has a lot to celebrate in these polls. There’s been a six percentage point movement in those who have a positive view of Golding since February 2024. That figure now stands at 30 per cent. That’s the highest it’s been in these polls.
Twenty-three per cent view Golding negatively, 46 per cent are neutral.
Also, for the first time since he was elected president of the party, Mr. Golding’s net favourability rating is running ahead of the PNP. His net favourability now stands at 7 per cent.
But Prime Minister Andrew Holness is also showing signs of resilience. Those who view the prime minister positively stand at 39 per cent. That’s compared to 28 per cent who view him negatively. Thirty-three per cent are neutral on the question. Mr. Holness’ net favourability rating is 11 per cent in these polls.
On job approval, 40 per cent of respondents say the prime minister is doing a good job. Thirty-two per cent say he’s doing an average job, and 28 per cent say he’s doing a poor job.
It should be noted that Holness’ job approval rating has rebounded from a low of 32 per cent last September to 40 per cent this year.
Women continue to break in favour of Holness with 42 per cent saying he’s done a good job as prime minister. That’s compared to 39 per cent of men who say the same.
Thirty-four per cent of women rated the prime minister as average, and 30 per cent of men said the same. Twenty-four per cent of men rated the prime minister’s performance as poor, while 31 per cent of men say Holness has been doing a poor job.
The gender balance is flipped when it comes to Golding. Men were more likely to rate his performance positively. Thirty-three per cent of men say he’s doing a good job, compared to 24 per cent of women.
Forty-six per cent of women rated Golding’s performance as average, compared to 37 per cent of men. There’s an even 30-30 split between the genders on those who say Golding’s performance has been poor.
The Nationwide Bluedot polls were conducted between September 6th and 19th. It sampled 1,246 Jamaicans.
Editor’s Note: The complete poll results can be watched on Nationwide’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/live/hbOI9kdGd6M?si=qd-in8eafOgIqPS8.
The results begin at the 36:30 mark in the video.
English (US) ·