3 weeks ago
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More Jamaicans say they identify with the governing Jamaica Labour Party, JLP, than with the opposition People’s National Party, PNP.
That’s according to the latest Nationwide/Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools.
The finding has raised questions about the long held, and often repeated belief that Jamaica is PNP country.
More in this report from George Davis.
Following the PNP’s long run in government from February 1989 to September 2007, the view had solidified that Jamaica was PNP country.
The JLP was barely able to wrest power from the PNP in the elections of 2007 and 2016. On neither occasion was the winning margin more than two seats for the Labourites.
That shifted dramatically in 2020 when the governing party trounced the PNP 49 to 14. It was the JLP’s biggest majority in the parliament since October 1980.
And there are signs that the 2020 landslide may have some staying power.
When the Bluedot pollsters asked 1,500 registered voters which party they supported or identified with, 35 per cent chose the JLP. That was 10 percentage points higher than the 25 per cent who chose the PNP.
Notably, the JLP dominates the PNP in support from women, where 37 per cent support the governing party and 23 per cent support the opposition party. That’s a 14 percentage point advantage.
Men were also more likely to support the JLP, albeit by a much smaller margin of three percentage points, 31 per cent to 28 per cent.
But perhaps the biggest cause for concern for the PNP is to be found in the fact that across all age groups, the JLP is dominant.
The governing party’s biggest advantage was among voters 18 to 24 years, where they lead the PNP by more than 15 percentage points.
The older the voter, the better the PNP fares. But the JLP still holds marginal leads among voters 45-to-54 years, where they lead by six percentage points; 55 to 64 years, where they lead by four percentage points; and voters over 65, where the governing party leads by three percentage points.
The data suggests the PNP has seriously slipped in support among what was once considered its key voting base of older voters.
But the leadership of both political parties should take little comfort in these numbers as a significant number of Jamaicans, 40 per cent, say they support neither of the big two.
That high level of neutrality is most pronounced among voters 18 to 24 years old where a clear majority, 54 per cent, say they support neither the JLP nor the PNP.
Voters over 65 years old were least apathetic, with 27 per cent indicating they do not support either party.
Men were also marginally more neutral than women, with 41 per cent of them saying they support neither party, compared to the 40 per cent of women who said the same.
The Nationwide/Bluedot poll was conducted between January 21 and February 1. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent.
English (US) ·