Statin data affirms double-dip economic decline

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica, the official authority on economic data, has confirmed that Jamaica recorded two consecutive quarters of decline.

“The contraction in the economy represented the second quarterly decline for 2024,” Statin stated in its assessment. “This reflected the impact of Tropical Storm Rafael in November 2024 and the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl from July 2024. The adverse weather conditions had the greatest impact on the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry,” the statistical agency said.

Statin reported that the economy declined by 0.8 per cent in the December quarter and 3.5 per cent in September. That puts Jamaica in a technical recession.

Data released earlier by the Planning Institute of Jamaica In February previously indicated that the economy had seen two consecutive quarters of contraction. PIOJ’s fourth quarter estimate was a 1.8 per cent decline whereas Statin’s data puts the contraction at 0.8 per cent.

Statin’s numbers are final.

The downturn was also attributed to reductions in electricity consumption caused by hurricane damage to power infrastructure, as well as fewer US tourist arrivals, which led to stagnant performance in the hotels and restaurants industry.

For the December quarter, the goods producing industries contracted by 4.3 per cent, while the services industries grew by 0.4 per cent.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing declined by 10.6 per cent; mining and quarrying was down 2.3 per cent; manufacturing contracted 0.5 per cent, and construction declined 2.7 per cent. Services saw modest growth in transport, storage and communication, up 1.8 per cent; and finance and insurance, up 0.5 per cent.

In February, while reporting on the contraction, PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry asserted that the economy was not in a recession, citing the macroeconomy’s relative strength and low unemployment rate. He also forecasted that the economy would return to growth in the March 2025 quarter. Economists consider additional factors when assessing recessions, but the ‘two consecutive quarters of GDP decline’ remains a key reference point.

Over the four quarters of 2024, the economy grew by 1.4 per for in the January-March period; grew marginally by 0.2 per cent in April-June; contracted by 3.5 per cent in July-September; and contract again by 0.8 per cent in the October-December period.

For the full calendar year, January-December, PIOJ estimated that the economy contracted by 0.9 per cent; Statin reported the decline at 0.7 per cent.

steven.jackson@gleanerjm.com