1 month ago
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Consumer and business confidence rose in the second quarter of 2025, even as business leaders expressed uncertainty about the United States market.
The consumer confidence index rose 1.4 per cent to 186.3 points in the second-quarter 2025 compared to the first-quarter, while the business confidence index climbed 1.7 per cent to 134.7 points over the review period.
Although consumers expect the economy to improve, they do not anticipate a positive impact on household income, said Don Anderson, whose firm, Market Research Services Limited, conducts the confidence surveys on behalf of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce.
Anderson partially attributed this recovery to increased optimism around the upcoming General Election, constitutionally scheduled for later this year.
Still, he cautioned that a 20-year data trend shows confidence often dips post-election.
He said consumers feel they will be impacted by headwinds they cannot control, such as price increases. But: “Thankfully, remittances are up”.
The proportion of households receiving remittances grew 3.0 percentage points to 31 per cent in the 2025 quarter, trending back toward the 36 per cent peak recorded in 2018.
Anderson also presented survey data showing expectations of local disruptions stemming from trade tariffs under US President Donald Trump. Among consumers offered a multiple response survey, one-third expect to buy less, another third foresee no impact, while 28 per cent plan to purchase more locally produced food.
For businesses, half anticipate rising shipping and logistics costs; 43 per cent foresee delays or shortages; and 36 per cent expect increases in input costs.
During a panel discussion that followed the release of the confidence indices, local chief executives detailed strategic responses to these shifts – ranging from diversified operations to reduced reliance on US markets.
“The USA will always be important,” said Kingston Wharves CEO Mark Williams, while acknowledging the need for operational adjustments, particularly for businesses outside the island.
“These adjustments have thus far benefited the island’s wharves,” Williams said. “Businesses are generally resilient – and the Caribbean has benefited from that.”
He pointed to a spike in transshipment activity, saying: “We have seen upwards of 30 per cent growth in transshipment business. We typically do two to three car shipments; last week, we did six”.
Hardware & Lumber CEO Sudu Ramani highlighted similar shifts in supply chains, noting that some US-based vendors have relocated warehouse operations to Panama.
While local consumer spending remains “flat,” Ramani expressed measured optimism.
“We are fairly confident we can manage through. Our buying has been fairly well managed,” he said.
Martha Miller, CEO of National Rums Limited, reported limited exposure to the US market, with only a small share of rum exports going there. Still, she acknowledged industrywide challenges.
“We are impacted by the spirits world being down about 20 per cent post-COVID-19,” she said. “There’s conservative behaviour among customers, and uncertainty about proclamations by the US president.”
Miller added that reduced time spent at home has contributed to decreased alcohol consumption.
“Business is down but stable. We are working through it. There’s still a lot of uncertainty. Locally, we see an upward trend and some optimism. We’re cautiously optimistic for 2026” she said.
English (US) ·