CariCOF warns of early severe weather, drought risk across the Caribbean

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is warning that unusually warm waters in the Tropical North Atlantic could trigger severe weather activity across parts of the Caribbean as early as April. Areas at risk include southern Belize, the Guianas, the Greater Antilles, and mountainous regions of the Lesser Antilles.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF noted that while March marks the peak of the Caribbean dry season, the region is also transitioning into the hotter, wetter months. The agency said the continued warmth raises the likelihood of flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards, and other impacts from April or May onward.

Short dry spells are expected to peak in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) and the Lesser Antilles, while episodes of heat discomfort may appear as early as March in inland areas of Belize, the Guianas, and Trinidad, spreading more broadly by May.

CariCOF also warned that rainfall totals are unlikely to ease long-term drought conditions in the ABC Islands, St Kitts and Nevis, and the Windward Islands. Grenada is forecasted to face imminent long-term drought by the end of May.

As of January 1, moderate short-term drought had already developed in easternmost Guadeloupe, St Croix, St Kitts, St Lucia, Sint Maarten/St-Martin, St Vincent, far southeast Suriname, and Aruba.

Looking ahead, CariCOF said long-term drought by the end of May is imminent in Grenada, evolving in the ABC Islands, Dominica, Martinique, and St Vincent. Drought conditions may also develop or persist in northern parts of the Dominican Republic and the islands of Saint Martin and St Barts.