Cedric Stephens | Cracking under climate pressure

Today’s article will begin with a discussion on the causes of potholes.

I do not, however, intend to enter the political argument that the Jamaica Observer figuratively headlined last Wednesday as ‘Road Rage! Government, Opposition clash over potholes’.

That debate highlights the fact that the election season has begun in earnest. As a result, quarrels about different topics will occur daily. One side will start an argument that the other will oppose, and vice versa, and never the twain shall meet.

Last Wednesday’s Duke Street drama exposed an important point: there seems to be no consensus between the Government and the Opposition on the impact of climate change. If this statement is true, given what The Gleaner’s editorial called the existential threats that climate change pose to the Caribbean, plus United States President Donald J. Trump’s accession to his throne, persons living in this region are facing a dystopian future. Bye-bye, Vision 2030.

My column last Sunday discussed the economic losses that are mounting from the impact of climate change. It also implied, based on comments made at a post-Cabinet briefing, that there is a link between the poor condition of the nation’s road system and last year’s Hurricane Beryl. The Observer said that Prime Minister Holness asserted in a statement to Parliament that “the roads have been affected by the impact of climate change”.

Opposition Leader Mark Golding disagreed. “To blame the appalling state of the road network in Jamaica today on climate change is totally disingenuous. The reality is that there has been an absence of any proper road maintenance policy for years …”.

Both statements are true. Extreme weather events contribute to the formation of potholes. The lack of maintenance and/or poor maintenance practices, coupled with extreme weather events, worsen road conditions. Because many chats are now taking place about potholes, and there is agreement that they pose dangers to the society, a discussion about them is not outside the scope of this column.

Also, part of the billions of dollars paid in motor insurance premiums each year, funds some of the costs of repairing vehicles damaged in accidents caused by potholes and compensation for personal injuries.

It is therefore logical and appropriate for this column to enter the pothole debate. It will do so by sharing objective information about these unwelcome, too numerous road features that are, indeed, adversely affected by extreme weather.

Countries like Jamaica, to quote last week’s article, are disproportionately affected by climate change. They face a multitude of challenges that threaten their environmental, economic, and social stability. The impacts of climate change are profound, encompassing rising sea levels, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and significant alterations in ecosystems and public health.

Experts agree that last year’s storms and hurricanes were one of the results of climate change.

Pothole formation, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, requires two factors to be present at the same time: water and traffic.

“Water weakens the soil beneath the pavement while traffic applies the loads that stress the pavement past their breaking point. Potholes form progressively from fatigue of the road surface which can lead to a precursor failure pattern known as crocodile [or alligator] cracking. Eventually, chunks of pavement between the fatigue cracks gradually work loose, and may then be plucked or forced out of the surface by continued wheel loads to create a pothole,” according to the Corps.

Potholes are generally agreed to be depressions or hollows in a road surface, typically caused by the wear and tear of traffic and the natural weathering processes. They often result from the expansion and contraction of water after it enters the ground under the pavement. In temperate climates, when the water freezes, it expands and causes the pavement to crack. Once the ice melts, the pavement contracts, leaving gaps and causing the surface to weaken and break apart under the pressure of traffic, forming potholes.

Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, flooding, and increased temperatures can cause significant damage to road infrastructure. Intense precipitation can lead to flooding which erodes road surfaces and weakens the underlying structures. Higher temperatures can cause pavements to expand and crack, leading to deterioration of road surfaces.

Last week’s article stated that 2024 was the warmest ever, edging out 2023, which was previously the warmest on record, and perhaps in the last 100,000 years, according to scientists.

The US Environmental Protection Agency said on its website “the nation’s transportation system is built to withstand weather, but climate change may affect this system over time. The impacts will vary by region”.

Is it reasonable to conclude that Jamaican road systems are climate-resistant?

A Nigerian source cited the following in its arguments that the Jamaican experience with potholes is not uncommon:

• The American Automobile Association estimated that about 5.3 million drivers per year suffered damage to their vehicles from potholes between 2010 and 2015. The annual cost related to damaged vehicles was put at US$3 billion;

• The United Kingdom estimated the annual cost of fixing potholes at £12 billion;

• India recorded that about 3,000 people were killed each year due to traffic accidents caused by potholes; and

• The Nigerian Federal Road Safety Corps is aware of the pothole problem but has been unable to collect relevant data. Research has found that some of the newly constructed roads were more prone to develop potholes than older roads.

Caribbean countries, The Gleaner said last week, contribute less than two per cent of the world’s greenhouse gases that fuel climate change. These gases are released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and methane that is expelled by animals that are raised for food.

Despite the islands’ tiny contribution to the problem, they are among the most at risk from the effects of climate change: ‘rising sea levels, more frequent and ferocious storms, unpredictable and worse floods, and longer and more intense droughts.’

It was unfortunate that neither the prime minister nor the leader of the Opposition attempted to elevate last week’s debate in Gordon House to arrive at consensus on how to treat the dangers that threaten the region’s and Jamaica’s existence.

Oddly, one day earlier, Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, Matthew Samuda, disclosed to the House that Professor Dale Webber had been appointed Jamaica’s first special envoy for climate change, environment, ocean and blue economy. Sadly, the Duke Street drama did not benefit from Prof Webber’s input or that of other experts from the Environment and Risk Management Branch of its Climate Change Division.

Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. For free information or counsel, write to: aegis@flowja.com or business@gleanerjm.com