The United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, has revised downward its growth projection for regional economies in 2025.
The Caribbean region is now forecast to grow by an average of 1.8 per cent in 2025, excluding Guyana. This makes it the most impacted sub-region in the updated forecast.
Chevon Campbell tells us more.
According to ECLAC, the region is facing a very complex and highly uncertain international scenario.
The tariff-related announcements made by the United States not only have direct effects on what the region’s countries export to that economy, but they also have indirect effects via greater volatility in international financial markets.
ECLAC says significant fluctuations in stock and bond markets have clear implications for the yield of assets and interest rates in the United States and the main global financial markets.
The growth rates expected given the new revision are 2.5 per cent in South America, one-percent in Central America and Mexico and 1.8 per cent in the Caribbean excluding Guyana.
ECLAC expects Jamaica to grow by 1 per cent of gross domestic product for 2025, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points. It’s also the lowest growth rate in the region.
This is followed by Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas at 1.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.
Guyana is the only Caribbean nation expected to register double-digit growth for the year at 10.3 per cent. If included, this would boost growth in the Caribbean region to 4.1 per cent due to the nation’s oil wealth.
Antigua and Barbuda suffered the greatest downward revision of 2.8 percentage points. However, it’s still anticipated the country will grow by 3 per cent.
ECLAC is the third international body to revise its projections for the region downwards in the wake of shifting US trade policies. They join the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
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