Economist says Jamaica May Have to Downgrade 2025 Growth Forecast

Economist, Keenan Falconer, says Jamaica might have to downgrade its growth figures for this year in light of the current wave of economic uncertainties.

Among them are US President Donald Trump’s shifting policies and tariffs.

His reaction follows the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund, IMF, on Tuesday.

Under the referenced forecast, which relies on information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026.

This is a downward revision from 3.3 per cent for both years in the previous update in January.

Growth from global trade is also expected to be cut in half. The data forecasts global trade growth falling from 3.8 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

In a growing trade war, the US has placed tariffs of up to 145 per cent on Chinese goods, while China has hit back with 125 per cent levies on US products.

The US president has said tariffs will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, increase the amount of taxes raised, and lead to huge levels of investment in the country.

However, the IMF has cited the potential negative impact on global trade given that modern supply chains are heavily interlinked.

Mr. Falconer says Trump’s move could be considered self-defeating.

Keenan Falconer, economist, speaking on Nationwide This Morning on Thursday.