10 hours ago
1
Long-term thinking is the new stability. And you need to discover why.
As an executive, you are leading an organisation that’s doing well. Revenues are stable, courtesy of a solid offering, dependable partners and happy customers. But beneath the calm lurks a risk: short-term drift.
The irony is that this deadly condition arises from success itself. It’s not caused by a crisis, technology or tariff.
Take Canadian companies, for example. For decades, they assumed that the United States would remain a reliable partner. The long-term horizon felt secure, so the hottest, most urgent items always got priority.
As a result, their strategy drifted. How?
Over time, they became more short-term oriented. While a few leaders took then President Trump’s warnings seriously, most dismissed the possibility of a real fracture. Today, with hindsight, that drift is easier for organisations of all kinds to comprehend.
But let’s bring this home. In your local company, relying solely on five-year thinking means short-term drift is already taking hold.
In other words, anything likely to take place in a six-, seven-year or longer timeframe is off your radar. For example, you won’t see your customers changing much in the next five years. Or your suppliers. Or government regulations. Or the supply of talent.
Consequently, most strategy retreats are more like operational updates.
Your team rarely explores scenarios unfolding in 10 or 20 or even 30 years. Or 100-200 years, as is the practice in some Asian organisations. These are all improbable in the usual frame of mind.
In retrospect, most mid to large Jamaican organisations have fallen into a complacency trap, a form of short-term drift.
Unfortunately, when they are challenged by the notion, executives convince themselves they are still strategic. After all, they have a list of goals and plans. But when you look below the surface, you find that these are routine, not the result of a difficult re-evaluation. Eventually, assumptions go unchallenged.
Therefore, when the ‘black swans’ arrive - pandemics, geopolitical shocks, AI disruption – the organisation is left exposed. They don’t know how to recover. And for some, it’s simply too late.
Case in point: Intel’s founder, Andy Grove, wrote the book Only the Paranoid Survive after almost losing the company to competitive forces. However, his advice and insights weren’t enough. Twenty years later, the firm fell into short-term drift, leaving it decades behind competitors such as Nvidia and TSMC. It’s a brutal irony.
The answer is to draw confidence and stability from your own long-term thinking, rather than your environment. While this is easier said than done, here are practical steps.
First, embrace the inherent danger of a ‘five-year-and-no-more’ strategy.
In all likelihood, there are long-term trends you are aware of, but aren’t discussing in the C-Suite. Instead of punting them into the indefinite future for others to grapple with, engage in scenario planning now.
This technique, which was used to craft Vision 2030 Jamaica, is a structured method for considering alternate futures.
In some ways, it’s a rehearsal. The collective imagination of the executive team is used to think through different outcomes, and compare a default response to one which was fully informed and prepared. Now, strategic plans can be robust.
For example, it’s not hard to imagine the difference this would have made in Canadian firms, as they entered 2025.
This embrace of uncertainty isn’t hard to accomplish if you convince yourselves that the world is changing, and the old stability you took for granted no longer exists.
Second, overcome fear
Many companies engage in a kind of fake positivism in which pessimism is simply not allowed. They honestly believe that rah-rah-pump-them-up events are needed to regularly excite the troops to great results.
However, many executives shy away from difficult conversations. They avoid them or cut them short. As they insist on seeing “glasses which are half-full,” employees are urged to “bring me solutions, not problems!”
This kind of reaction isn’t helpful.
Instead, it takes courage for a C-suite to engage in actions which put their well-being at risk. They may not be physically attacked, but there is the possibility of public disgrace. Late night dismissals in the press. Slander on social media.
At the same time, if a strategy fails to include a rigorous exploration of difficult choices, then it doesn’t deserve its name. And it won’t achieve game-changing results.
Therefore, real leadership begins where comfort ends. Step beyond success, confront the unknown, and protect a future only vigilance and long-term thinking can secure.
Francis Wade is a management consultant and author of Perfect Time-Based Productivity. To search past columns on productivity, strategy and business processes, or give feedback, email: columns@fwconsulting.com
English (US) ·