GUYANA IS expected to record the highest growth among Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries this year, while Haiti will record under one per cent growth in 2023, according to the latest World Economic Outlook, released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday.
According to the IMF, Guyana, which is now recognised as an oil producing country following the discovery of the product a few years ago, will record economic growth of 37.2 per cent this year, increasing to 45.3 per cent next year.
St Vincent and the Grenadines, which is the CARICOM country with the second-highest predicted economic growth of six per cent this year, will register a five per cent growth in 2024.
Antigua and Barbuda with a growth of 5.5 per cent this year, will see that figure decline slightly to 5.4 per cent next year, while Dominica and Barbados are projected to record economic growth of 4.9 per cent this year, dropping to 4.7 and 3.9 per cent, respectively, in 2024.
The twin island Federation of St Kitts-Nevis will, according to the IMF projections, record economic growth of 4.5 per cent this year, dropping to 3.8 per cent the following year, while The Bahamas’ economic growth this year is projected at 4.3 per cent, declining significantly to 1.8 per cent next year.
Belize, Grenada, St Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago will all register growth of three or just over three per cent this year, even as the growth will decline to two per cent next year for Belize, increase to 4.1 per cent for Grenada, a decline to 2.2 per cent for St Lucia and 2.3 per cent for Trinidad and Tobago.
The Dutch-speaking CARICOM country of Suriname will record economic growth of 2.3 per cent this year, increasing to three per cent the following year, while in the case of Haiti, where political and social unrest has engulfed that country, the economic growth this year will be 0.3 per cent, increasing to 1.2 per cent next year.
In its report, the Washington-based financial institution said that the global economy’s gradual recovery from both the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains on track.
It said China’s reopened economy is rebounding strongly and that supply chain disruptions are unwinding, while dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding. “Simultaneously, the massive and synchronised tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back towards targets,” the IMF said, adding that its latest World Economic Outlook is that growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to three per cent next year, 0.1 percentage points below the January projections.
“Global inflation will fall, though more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent last year to seven percent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024,” the IMF said, adding that the economic slowdown is most pronounced in advanced economies and that inflation is falling more slowly than anticipated.
Dong HE, deputy director in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, says while regulatory changes put in place after the Global Financial Crisis have made the financial system more resilient, recent events may be a harbinger of more systemic stress to come.