International relations expert: Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela relations could get worse

The USS Gravely an American warship destroyer leave the Port of Port of Spain on October 30 following a five-day humanitarian and training visit. - Photo by Lincoln Holder

International relations expert Dr Anthony Gonzales disagrees with Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s openly defiant stance on alleged narco-traffickers and her support of US military action over the last eight weeks, which left 61 suspected narco-traffickers dead.

He said while it is necessary to take a hard line on suspected drug traffickers, due process must be upheld.

Gonzales' views mirror those of the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, who criticised the action by US armed forces to kill suspected drug traffickers.

In a statement on October 31, Türk said, "These attacks – and their mounting human cost – are unacceptable. The US must halt such attacks and take all measures necessary to prevent the extrajudicial killing of people aboard these boats, whatever the criminal conduct against them."

Persad-Bissessar, who returned as TT prime minister for a second term after the UNC-led coalition’s victory in the April 28 general election, has taken a tough stand on Venezuelan criminal organisations operating in the region, declaring in a statement on September 2, “I have no sympathy for traffickers, the US military should kill them all, violently.”

In relation to the PM's position, Gonzales said, “She is saying certain things which are confusing in a sense because she said she is not in favour of the invasion of Venezuela. On the other hand, she is saying you should kill these drug traffickers at sea.

“I think she is the only Prime Minister in the region that I know, even among some of the countries in the world, I have heard say that. Even those that are pro-American, I don’t hear them saying that,” Gonzales told Newsday on November 1.

“US congressmen have been saying that you should give these people due process and lawful access to the courts because you don’t know who you are killing.

“So I think that is a mistake that she made very early. You could be against drug traffickers but that is an extreme measure because I am sure innocent people are passing in the rush.”

'An act of provocation'

Gonzales, former head of the Institute of International Relations, UWI, St Augustine, said Persad-Bissessar must state clearly the motive behind the USS Gravely’s presence in TT.

Both the US Embassy and the Defence Force said the USS Gravely visit was part of a joint training mission with local military officers but the Venezuelan government viewed it as "military provocation" and a serious threat to the peace of the Caribbean."

“I think her position needs to be a little clearer, that the Americans will not use the country as a base,” said Gonzales.

In his view, he said, there was no justification for bringing a destroyer to TT “in these times of tension.

“That destroyer came right on the border. I don’t think it was a good time to do that. She (Persad-Bissessar) justified that on the grounds by saying that it was a training exercise.

“But the Venezuelans would not look at it that way. They look at it as if you are bringing a military ship right next to the border.”

Gonzales said he would not have done anything like that to provoke them.

“I am not 100 per cent clear as to where she is on this. In those circumstances, it is better not to say anything. The more you say, you put yourself in hot water one way or the other.

“All I am hoping is that we don’t get ourselves entangled in any war that is likely to come with the Americans sending missiles and the Venezuelans sending back out missiles at the American ships.

“That is going to seriously affect us if it occurs, because planes will have to stop flying because it will be too dangerous. You don’t know if a missile may come and the Venezuelans may think it is a plane coming to attack them and they may shoot.”

He believes TT’s relationship with Venezuela is deteriorating, and it will only descend further if the Americans attack Venezuela and the government remains in power.

“Dragon gas, cross-border gas, all these things will be out. That is no longer on the cards. So my feeling is that it will probably get worse before it gets better. We don’t want the Americans to come and use here as a base, which would draw us into the conflict. We want to stay clear of that.

“I think the government has not taken a very clear position to decide, like the other Caribbean islands, that they want to remain neutral or non-aligned and stay out of the problem. So the situation is likely to deteriorate for quite a bit. We just have to buckle down and navigate our way through this.”

Gonzales believes the tourism, airline and other service-oriented industries would be seriously affected if tensions worsen.

Economic impact looms

Historian Dr Jerome Teelucksingh believes the Venezuelan National Assembly’s decision to declare Persad-Bissessar persona non grata will not sit well with the population, particularly the TT Government’s supporters.

On October 28, the National Assembly of the Bolivian Republic of Venezuela’s overwhelming vote on October 28 to declare Persad-Bissessar persona non grata and that country’s decision to suspend energy development co-operation with TT are among a series of developments that have escalated tensions between the two nations.

“We will start to see some increased animosity with the Venezuelan immigrant population and I believe that can sour the relations. People don’t trust them already and I feel that this can impact the immigrant population here in the way they are seen, especially by Trinidadians who feel that Venezuela should not have said that publicly against their prime minister,” he told Newsday.

Teelucksingh also believes the Venezuelan Government’s decision to suspend energy co-operation agreements with TT, including the much-touted Dragon Gas deal, will affect this country’s economy and future budgets.

But he said the population must note that there are other countries involved in the trading process.

“So Venezuela does not have a monopoly over us. We could have relations with a country in the Middle East and they could supply us with whatever we need.”

In the meantime, though, Teelucksingh said the suspension of energy deals could affect prices in the long term.

“It will also mean that we have to look for other ways to tap into our natural gas resources.”

Teelucksingh believes the crux of the breakdown in relations between Venezuela and TT lies in Persad-Bissessar’s stance on drug cartels operating in the region.

“Yes, we are looking at a loss in the gas deal but Trinidad is a drug transhipment point, and our prime minister has shown that she is serious about cutting off the head of the cartel.

“So in the long term, we will need the US if we have a crisis. And if there is any sort of political instability, the US will come to our help.”

He said the US also has investments in TT that they want to protect.

“But the critical point is the issue of the drug cartels and trying to prevent the illegal drugs and the money laundering from affecting our economy. The Prime Minister is not just doing this because she hates Spanish people or (Nicolas) Maduro, the central focus is the drugs.”

Teelucksingh said while he agrees with the position being taken by Persad-Bissessar in relation to the Venezuelan drug cartels, alleged corruption and Maduro’s oppressive policies, he was deeply concerned about the long-term impact of the country’s decision to suspend energy agreements with TT.

“To a large extent will support her but I am also seeing it affecting our economy because that will be a major loss of revenue.”