3 months ago
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Jamaica’s economy grew 0.8 per cent in the March 2025 quarter, marking its exit from technical recession.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, the agency that released the figures, remains cautious on uncertainties regarding US trade tariff policy and geopolitical tensions.
“These uncertainties have the potential to constrain economic activities, and the PIOJ will continue to carefully monitor and assess these developments as more information becomes available,” said PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry at his quarterly press briefing on the economy on Wednesday.
The latest figures suggest recovery momentum across key sectors. The goods-producing industry expanded by 1.0 per cent, supported by growth in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and construction. The services sector rose by 0.7 per cent, reflecting gains in tourism, finance, trade, and transport.
The turnaround was driven by rising consumer confidence, increased employment, and stronger external demand. The PIOJ credited the upswing to ongoing recovery from the passage of Hurricane Beryl in mid-2024 and other weather shocks in that year.
“Increased employment and higher consumer confidence have contributed to stronger domestic demand,” Henry noted.
A key highlight of the quarter was growth in construction, which saw a 1.5 per cent increase in real value added. This was bolstered by National Works Agency spending on infrastructure projects and Port Authority developments. Meanwhile, mining grew by 0.5 per cent, as crude bauxite production surged by 26 per cent, offsetting declines in alumina output.
Looking ahead, the April to June 2025 quarter is projected to grow between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent, supported by agriculture, tourism arrivals, and infrastructure development. The PIOJ remains optimistic, anticipating further stabilisation.
“The economy continues to recover, and we expect these initiatives to drive further expansion,” the PIOJ director general said.
The Jamaican economy registered two consecutive quarters of decline in September, down 3.5 per cent, and down 0.8 per cent in December 2024. At the time, the Government emphasised that the recession extends beyond GDP decline, pointing to historically low unemployment, stable inflation, and strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
On Wednesday, the agency noted that unemployment remained low at 3.7 per cent in the January 2025 quarterly survey by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, down 1.7 percentage points relative to January 2024. Youth unemployment also decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 12.3 per cent in the Statin labour force survey.
The PIOJ also released the official poverty prevalence estimates for 2023, computed from JSLC, or Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions, data collected by Statin. The JSLC is a joint publication of PIOJ and Statin.
Jamaica’s national poverty rate declined from 16.7 per cent in 2021 to 8.2 per cent in 2023, the lowest figure ever recorded since poverty rates were first measured in 1989.
“With respect to the poverty out-turn, it shows potential for sustained reduction, with the implementation of key policies and programmes,” said Henry.
The estimate for 2024 will be provided later this year.
In 2012, poverty in Jamaica was 19.7 per cent. That meant nearly “one in every five Jamaicans” was consuming below the poverty line, said Henry. The poverty rate has since trended downwards, but spiked to 16.7 per cent in 2021, likely reflecting the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The results reflect progress across all regions of the country,” Henry said.
English (US) ·