Jamaica’s Birth Rate Falls 42.2% as Population Growth Hits 50-Year Low, According to Latest Data from STATIN

Jamaica’s population is growing — but barely. According to the 2022 Population and Housing Census released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the island’s population now stands at 2,774,538, marking a modest 2.8% increase since 2011. While St. Catherine recorded the largest growth, adding 26,545 people, STATIN officials say the nation’s slowing birth rate and steady emigration are reshaping Jamaica’s demographic future.

The findings, presented by STATIN’s Director of Censuses and Demographic Statistics, Stacy-Ann Robinson, at the agency’s Quarterly Press Briefing on October 15 at Kingston’s S Hotel, revealed that Jamaica’s population growth rate — just 0.24% annually — is the lowest recorded in over five decades. Robinson attributed this slowdown to a sharp 42.2% drop in births, compounded by rising deaths and consistent outward migration.

Between 1970 and 1982, Jamaica recorded 747,788 births — but that number plunged to 432,018 between 2011 and 2022. Over the same period, deaths increased from 188,993 to 236,687, while net migration declined from 216,959 to 118,776. The shift highlights what experts are calling a “demographic turning point,” where the island’s population is expanding on paper, but its growth engine — young people — is shrinking.

Meanwhile, Kingston and St. Andrew remain Jamaica’s most densely populated parishes, exceeding 501 persons per square kilometre, followed by St. Catherine, which continues to lead urban expansion. At the other end, rural parishes like Hanover, St. Thomas, and Portland have the lowest population densities, signaling widening gaps between Jamaica’s urban and rural development.

STATIN’s 15th national census — delayed from 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic — used advanced methodologies, including Global Human Settlement Population Layer (GHS-POP) and small-area population estimation models, to ensure accuracy. As Jamaica grapples with declining fertility and migration trends, policymakers are now being urged to rethink national planning strategies to secure the country’s long-term demographic balance.