Jamaica’s economy expanded 5.1% in July–September 2025, STATIN reports

Jamaica’s economy grew by 5.1 per cent during the July to September 2025 quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).

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The expansion was driven by strong performances in both the Goods Producing Industries, which grew by 10.9 per cent, and the Services Industries, which increased by 3.3 per cent.

STATIN said the overall performance reflected recovery from the negative impacts of Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, with increased activity in industries that were most affected. These included Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing; Mining & Quarrying; Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management; and Accommodation & Food Service Activities.

The rebound in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing was supported by favourable weather conditions during the period, along with ongoing efforts by both government and private sector entities to boost production capacity. Growth was recorded across all goods-producing industries, led by Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing at 20.9 per cent, followed by Manufacturing at 8.4 per cent, Construction at 5.5 per cent, and Mining & Quarrying at 4.0 per cent.

The 3.3 per cent expansion in the Services Industries reflected increases across all service areas, except for Public Administration & Defence, which declined by 0.7 per cent. Improved performances were recorded in Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management (6.7 per cent); Accommodation & Food Service Activities (6.8 per cent); Transport & Storage (7.1 per cent); Financial & Insurance Activities (5.3 per cent); Wholesale & Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles, and Installation of Machinery & Equipment (3.1 per cent); Information & Communication (1.5 per cent); Real Estate & Business Activities (1.0 per cent); and Education, Health & Other Services (2.5 per cent).

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real value added, seasonally adjusted, increased by 1.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the second quarter. This marked the third consecutive quarter of growth for the year and was attributed to a 2.1 per cent increase in the Goods Producing Industries and a 0.8 per cent increase in the Services Industries.

However, the outlook for the economy has shifted sharply following the catastrophic impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa on October 28, 2025. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has projected a severe economic contraction of between 11.0 per cent and 13.0 per cent for the October–December 2025 quarter, which would represent the country’s worst quarterly performance since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The hurricane caused physical damage estimated at US$8.8 billion, equivalent to approximately 41 per cent of Jamaica’s 2024 GDP. According to projections, this shock has effectively erased the 5.1 per cent growth recorded in the third quarter and is expected to result in a full fiscal year decline of between 3.0 per cent and 6.0 per cent.

With key sectors such as Agriculture and Tourism sustaining major infrastructure losses, and a US Level-3 travel advisory further suppressing visitor arrivals, the economy is not expected to return to positive growth until the final quarter of 2026.