3 weeks ago
9
The economy officially grew faster than initial estimates in the September quarter of 2025, before the onset of Hurricane Melissa.
It expanded by 5.1 per cent, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), the final arbiter of economic statistics. This compared with the 4.6-per-cent estimate previously issued by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).
It was among the strongest third-quarter outturns since the pandemic and reflected recovery from Hurricane Beryl, which struck in July 2024. Looking ahead, however, performance is expected to decline due to the recessionary impact of Category-Five Hurricane Melissa in October 2025.
Statin reported that between July and September 2025, growth was anchored by a 10.9-per-cent rebound in goods-producing industries and a 3.3-per-cent expansion in services. This compared with PIOJ’s estimates of 10 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively.
Among the goods producers, agriculture, forestry and fishing led decisively, rising 20.9 per cent on favourable weather and targeted production support. Manufacturing advanced 8.4 per cent, buoyed by stronger food and beverages output and improved petroleum refining. Construction increased 5.5 per cent on both civil works and building activity, while mining and quarrying grew 4.0 per cent, reflecting normalised port operations and firmer external demand for bauxite and alumina.
On the services side, gains spanned transport and storage, up 7.1 per cent; accommodation and food, up 6.8 per cent; electricity, water supply and waste management, up 6.7 per cent; financial and insurance, up 5.3 per cent; wholesale and retail, up 3.1 per cent; and information and communication, up 1.5 per cent. Only public administration and defence slipped, contracting by 0.7 per cent.
The September quarter rebound followed the deep contraction in July–September 2024, when Hurricane Beryl disrupted agriculture, mining and utilities, and knocked back tourism. Statin recorded that period as a 3.5-per-cent decline, underscoring how cyclical shocks can whiplash output and how recovery in agriculture and tourism often spearheads the bounce-back.
On October28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa made a historic landfall in western Jamaica with sustained winds of 185 mph, the strongest on record to directly strike the island. Early damage assessments ranged from US$8.9 billion to about 41 per cent of GDP, to broader economic erosion flagged by the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), which noted hits across all sectors and early inflation pressures via food prices.
The near-term outlook is for a sharp fourth-quarter contraction as agriculture, tourism, construction and utilities absorb asset losses and service interruptions. Non-official forecasts aired in late November pointed to double-digit fourth-quarter declines, a recession-like impact that could push headline inflation above target in coming months. While those estimates are not binding official guidance, they align directionally with BOJ’s warning that Melissa would “adversely affect” GDP and intensify price pressures.
Still, Jamaica’s buffers - including historically strong international reserves of about US$6.3 billion in mid-December, disaster-risk financing instruments, and reinsurance coverage in the financial system - should moderate external instability and support reconstruction financing.
English (US) ·