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Prime Minister Dr. Andrew Holness would defeat Opposition Leader, Mark Golding, by 10-points if Jamaicans could directly elect their Prime Minister.
That’s according to the latest Nationwide/Bluedot polls, powered by Total Tools.
Despite Dr. Holness’ advantage in the hypothetical direct match up, Golding has managed to narrow the gap over the last three months.
Mahiri Stewart has the details.
It’s a question the Bluedot pollsters have put to Jamaicans over the last two years.
If they could directly elect the Prime Minister, who would they choose? The question was again put to voters between May 2 and 17.
Back in 2023, Holness comfortably cleared a field of popular politicians. Jamaicans say he would be their man.
In September 2024, in the direct hypothetical match up with Holness, Golding was within striking distance. He trailed by only 5-points.
In February this year, Holness pulled ahead, opening up a massive 14-point lead over his Opposition counterpart.
Fast forward to May, and Holness’ lead has dipped to 10-points.
55-percent of Jamaicans say they would choose him. 45-percent say they would go with Golding.
That’s a four point fall off from the lead the Prime Minister enjoyed three months ago.
Holness leads Golding across all but two age demographics. The Opposition Leader draws even with the Prime Minister with voters 35-44 years old, and bests him by 2-points with voters over 65 years old.
That 2-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 2-point-3 percent.
Golding’s gain is with voters over 65 years. He has improved his standing with them by 4-points in the last three months.
The Opposition Leader has also seen a 5-point improvement with voters 35-44 years old.
The Prime Minister dominates Golding across all 14 parishes, holding a massive 24-point lead in St. Thomas. 62-percent of voters in the eastern parish would choose Holness. 38-percent would choose Golding.
Holness also holds double digit leads in Clarendon, Portland, St. Catherine, St. Elizabeth Westmoreland and St. James.
Golding significantly narrows the gap in Kingston and St. Andrew and St. Mary where Holness’ lead shrinks to 2-points.
The Prime Minister is 4-points ahead in Hanover, Manchester, St. Ann and 6-points ahead in Trelawny.
As it stands, the Governor General appoints the person best able to command the confidence of the majority of the House of Representatives. By convention, that has been the leader of the governing party.
But with these numbers, Holness may wonder if the hypothetical question might not be one to seriously consider.
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