No tea leaves needed

tasseography: a divination practice or fortune-telling method that interprets patterns in tea leaves at the bottom of a cup

I do not need to read tea leaves to see that Gianni Infantino will be returned by his loyalists to the FIFA presidency in March 2027. Indeed, I have been saying it for months. The deadline for nomination of candidates is 18 November 2026, Infantino is still the only candidate with three weeks left and the anti-Infantino faction, led by UEFA and CONCACAF (ostensibly) is in disarray. We have sure signs of this.

The FIFA Council, meeting last week on a UEFA proposal intended to remove power from the Presidency and to bestow it upon the Council itself, avoided serious decisions and kicked agenda matters into the long grass. It agreed to establish a working group to examine FIFA’s governance framework, while FIFA’s Football Social Responsibility Committee was tasked with an assessment of the controversial FIFA Peace Prize, with a decision to be taken on its future at the next Council meeting in December 2026. Translation: the challenge to Infantino is stalling because the anti-Infantino lobby does not have the votes to remove or replace him.

Even more striking is CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani’s withdrawal as a potential election candidate. After months of front-foot anti-Infantino politics Montagliani evidently smelled the proverbial rat. It seems he finally realized that the majority, if not all, of CONCACAF’s 25 Caribbean national associations are uncommitted to his cause and remain loyal to Infantino – along with Africa, South America and much of Asia. Apparently, poor Victor belatedly understood that stepping up against Infantino would be suicidal. So, via “colleagues” he announced he will merely seek re-election as president of CONCACAF in 2027, effectively withdrawing from the FIFA presidential race. With the nomination deadline looming, the anti-Infantino faction is at a loss for a candidate because its nominal leader, UEFA president Alexander Ceferin, has repeatedly dismissed suggestions he could challenge Infantino for the presidency.

In yet another measure of its nervousness at dawning reality, earlier this week UEFA challenged FIFA’s election machinery, sending a letter to General Secretary, Mattias Grafström questioning the independence of the Chairman of the FIFA Electoral Committee, Bruno Chiomento. Yes, the Infantino era is set to continue, as I have been saying for weeks. And the only way to control his runaway horse behaviour, is the imposition of external controls by the European Union, other international organizations to which Switzerland, FIFA’s country of domicile, belongs, and national governments across the globe. No tea leaves needed to see that.

TTFA YET AGAIN

Next up on TTFA’s competition calendar is the the FIFA U15 World Cup and Festival, a strange 8v8 format invitational competition to be played in Azerbaijan from October 24 to 30. Eighteen European countries and USA are boycotting because the tournament marks Russia’s first return to a FIFA-sanctioned event after its 2022 suspension. Football Development, Arsene Wenger, says, “By bringing teams from across the world together at U15 level, we can give players meaningful matches, expose them to different styles and football cultures, and help them learn and develop through competition”. Yes, we can name several players who debuted in European elite football at fifteen – Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Ethan Nwaneri Arsenal (Arsenal) and Francesco Camarda (AC Milan) among them. In CONCACAF, sixteen-year-old American winger Paxon Ruffin made his Liga MX debut earlier this week, becoming the youngest player to play for Mexican giants Monterrey.

TTFA inimitably announced a secretly selected 14-member squad with the inevitable Randolph Boyce at its helm, (as was the case with the recent CFU U14 tournament team also headed by Boyce). The players are drawn overwhelmingly from “prestige schools”: Fatima 4, Presentation 3, St. Benedict’s 2, St. Mary’s, QRC, Hillview, Naparima and Signal Hill 1 each. As with the CFU U14 team, it appears government schools no longer have talented boys who are good enough.

An argument made by some in defence of TTFA’s opaque selection process is that the post-Covid SSFL U14 championship has been won by “prestige schools” – 2022 (Fatima), 2023 and 2024 (Naparima) and 2025 (no winner, but the unplayed final was supposed to be Naparima v Signal Hill). This is incoherent “logic”. The problem is not who the boys are (I am certain they are talented), or which schools they represent. The fundamental issue is the denial – philosophical, procedural and technical – of sporting democracy. Philosophical because Sport is supposed to be a carnival of merit, allowing individual talent to achieve and rise to the top; procedural because secret selection fosters favouritism and denies all children equal opportunity to strive for a place; and technical because a narrow, secret process does not facilitate the inclusion of the best talents. The laziness and incompetence of TTFA is unending. They do not even recognize their failure. Nor, evidently, do they care. How do members allow this?

Our opponents in Azerbaijan are Cayman Islands, Egypt, Iraq, Macau and St. Kitt’s. In international football, the fact is that the lower down the age group food chain one descends the greater the possibility of competitive parity between opponents. Why? Because talent, which all countries possess, has not been affected by quality coaching and other developmental inputs at the lower level as much as it potentially will have been at higher levels. In other words, our best chance of meeting the likes of Egypt and Iraq on anything resembling an equal footing is precisely at U15 level (as opposed to U17, U20 or senior level). But these days we struggle against all comers. In the CFU U14 tournament we finished with a mediocre 1-1-1 record. So, I am uncertain of performance and results even against the two Caribbean opponents and unknown Macau, but I expect both Egypt and Iraq to finish in the top two places while we fight for third. No tea leaves needed.

SELF PRAISE EH NO PRAISE

Two and a half years into his term TTFA President Kieron Edwards has tabled a strategic development plan called “The Summit” for 2027-2030. Football people had called on him for one for – well, two and a half years. With our football in a state of collapse – the latest problem being the uncertain start date of next season’s Premier League – and TTFA elections only eighteen months away, no doubt he sees now as the best time to begin the public relations campaign for re-election. So he gave his administration the thumbs up this week, saying “I believe we have a pass mark,” and launched his multi-year road map, overflowing with promises, that transcends his current term and projects into another.

Never mind that the document has never been discussed with members, Edwards says the plan provides a clear direction for the Association and the wider football community. “For too long, our football has depended on talent and individual effort without having a sufficiently connected system to support it. The challenge is creating the systems that turn talent into consistent achievement.” Fair enough. TTFA’s website adds, “The Summit is our answer to that challenge. It addresses governance and administration, coach education, national teams, youth development, women’s football, infrastructure, media, commercial sustainability, and the welfare of those who gave their careers to build our game”. Nice words.

Forgive me, but given TTFA’s established lack of professional quality, I am tempted to conclude this document was outsourced or written by artificial intelligence. Or both. No problem with that. TTFA has not remotely demonstrated a capacity to produce a 58-page document of any quality, and we live in an AI world now. But how neatly it coincides with the promise by Infantino to hand USD 25 million to each FIFA member association over the very 2027–2030 commercial cycle. That’s TTD 175 million, folks! And a lot more money for TTFA to account for as they already have problems accounting for their current expenditure. You see why men will not stop worshipping at Infantino’s altar? What wonderful synchronicity though! Edwards just watched Montagliani preach against Infantino in the desert quietly knowing that Gianni’s manna would fall his way. Who could blame him for wanting to be in office in 2030 with all those shiny new shekels to spend? So TTFA could soon count on two elements of the Holy Trinity of development – a plan (fantastical though it may be), and money (in stupefying abundance). What it decidedly does not have is the third element – the people with the know-how to implement it. The people now in office cannot handle even their current ramshackle operation, never mind one galvanized around a serious long-term development plan.

My concern is never personal criticism but organizational performance and progress. And I always seek to be open minded and fair. So, I will say this to Edwards and TTFA: Congratulations. You finally have a plan. But, take heed. Unless you hire professional administrative and technical staff to implement it properly, and make yourselves accountable to TTFA members and the public, all we will have is better funded failure. No tea leaves needed.

Editor’s note: The views expressed in the preceding article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organisation in which he is a stakeholder.