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The Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, expects the economy to grow two to three per cent in the July to September quarter, aided in part by increased consumption linked to General Election activity.
“You would expect a bump in consumption spending during that period,” said PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry during his quarterly media briefing on Tuesday. “We have, over the years, had peaceful elections and can anticipate a positive outturn from the election cycle.”
Henry added that the country’s democratic stability continues to support economic resilience.
“It’s a testament to the strong democracy – for peaceful, fair and transparent elections”.
Jamaicans head to the polls in September 3, and electioneering is on in full force. The increased activity will contribute to a short-term economic stimulus for the quarter that spans July 1 to September 30. Areas in which the election expenditure are readily visible are transport, clothing as evidenced by the sea of green and orange attire of the JLP and PNP supporters, respectively, food, and advertising and communication.
For the April to June 2025 quarter, the Jamaican economy grew by an estimated 1.4 per cent compared to the same period last year. The outturn reflected broad-based gains, particularly in industries recovering from Hurricane Beryl’s impact in July 2024. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ and ‘accommodation and food services’ industries “entered into a new growth phase, with current output levels surpassing their pre-hurricane burial output levels,” PIOJ said.
The goods-producing industry expanded by 3.8 per cent, while the services industry grew 0.5 per cent. Overall goods growth was driven by agriculture, manufacturing, and construction. Crop production grew across all categories, with cereals up 28 per cent, potatoes 23 per cent, and vegetables 19 per cent. Traditional exports also improved, with coffee up 8.6 per cent and banana up 4.0 per cent, offsetting declines in cocoa and sugarcane.
Construction grew by 1.6 per cent, supported by an eightfold rise in housing starts by the National Housing Trust, and an eightfold rise in Port Authority of Jamaica expenditure, reflecting dock rehabilitation works.
Mining and quarrying however contracted by 3.5 per cent, with alumina production dipping 5.5 per cent due to plant disruptions.
“Lower production was a result of reduced demand, as well as technical challenges associated with equipment failure at one plant,” said Henry, speaking from the PIOJ’s head offices in New Kingston.
Beverage manufacturing also declined, with beer and stout output falling 20 per cent and rum and alcohol down 5.0 per cent.
Stopover arrivals rose 1.6 per cent to 743,720 tourists, while preliminary visitor expenditure for April to May increased 7.6 per cent to US$697 million, the PIOJ stated. Employment also improved, with the labour force expanding by 24,200 persons. The unemployment rate stood at 3.3 per cent in April, with youth unemployment at 10.1 per cent.
As for the periods ahead, the PIOJ projects that fiscal year GDP growth will land somewhere between 1.0 and 2.0 per cent, supported by continued recovery momentum, stronger domestic demand, and post-hurricane infrastructure investment. The downside risks include weather but also “disruptions in trade caused by the implementation of increased tariffs by the USA”.
Despite the challenges, the PIOJ said it “remains optimistic” about the outlook.
English (US) ·