Planning ahead to counter climate vulnerability

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will begin on June 1 or in about 40 days’ time. The island, its Caribbean and other neighbours, were severely affected by hurricane events last year. Because of this, our short memories, and the significant threats that climate change poses to small island developing states like ours, which most scientists agree causes more frequent and destructive storms, it is planned to change course this year in discussing experts’ forecast for the approaching season. Today’s article will begin by reviewing some of the impacts of last year’s events in selected islands. It will also highlight their vulnerabilities to these weather events and end with the 2025 forecasts.

It is hoped that by providing readers with a summary of the macro impacts of last year’s hurricane events, the 2025 forecast will become more relevant and help improve preparedness.

Hurricane Beryl’s and TS Rafael impacts on Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Rafael had significant social and economic impacts on Jamaica during the 2024 Hurricane Season. Beryl, which developed from a tropical depression into a major hurricane in 42 hours and travelled along a south westerly track below the island, caused damage of about $32 billion or, 1.1 per cent of the island’s Gross Domestic Product. It severely affected the agriculture, mining, and tourism sectors. Economic activities declined for two successive quarters as a result. The lives and livelihoods of over 5,000 farmers were disrupted by TS Rafael which was estimated to have caused losses of $620 million. Both events occurred during a season that was forecast in March 2024, as ‘hellish,’ and underscored the need for enhanced disaster preparedness.

My March 9, 2025, article reported that the island scored poorly in the World Resilience 2025 Index, 107 out of 130 countries. Are the authorities, mainly the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, its parent ministry, and the Ministry of Finance aware of this and are formulating a plan to help the country climb further up the ladder? Was the plan adjusted to include the lessons learned during last year’s events?

Ekhosuehi Iyahen is the secretary-general of the Insurance Development Forum. She wrote in her recent op-ed in this newspaper: Insuring coastal and ocean resilience, ‘despite the heightened risks, insurers recognize that well-designed products, accurate risk pricing, and strengthened resilience measures can make climate-vulnerable markets financially viable …’ Prosperity will not be achieved by the vast majority of citizens if the country remains among the 20 least resilient nations on the planet.

Hurricane Beryl’s impacts Elsewhere in the Caribbean

The , International Monetary Fund made following statements in the summary of an April 11, 2025 report assessing climate change risks in The Bahamas. (The islands are) ‘highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including gradual sea level rise, biodiversity loss, and intensifying hurricanes. Together, these challenges threaten to undermine the country’s potential output over the long term by inflicting damage to physical assets and eroding natural capital, which is vital to the tourism-driven economy.’ These comments can be applied to other countries in the region, as The World Bank, another Washington-based financial institution, said as it offered details about its US$70 million Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Financing project to assist St Lucia, Barbados, and St Vincent and The Grenadines.

In reviewing the vulnerabilities of St Vincent and the Grenadines, the Fund said that ‘significant’ exposures remain. ‘More frequent and intense storms, shifting rainfall patterns, and worsening coastal erosion are placing growing strain on infrastructure, ecosystems, and livelihoods. Prolonged droughts are affecting water security and agriculture, and the combination of steep terrain and unregulated development increases the likelihood of landslides and flash flooding.

‘These compounding pressures threaten public safety, disrupt essential services and reveal gaps in disaster preparedness and long-term planning. This was demonstrated during Hurricane Beryl, the most powerful hurricane to impact the country since 1875. When it made landfall on July 1, 2024, it caused estimated economic damage of US$230.6 million or 22 per cent of the islands’ 2023 Gross Domestic Product.’

Forecast For 2025 Hurricane Season

Even though their projections are based on data which were collected in March and earlier and the peak of the season occurs in August to September, the hurricane forecasters have, presumably because of climate change, made predictions for ‘above normal’ storm activity.

• Scientists from the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA reported on April 3 that information obtained through March indicated that the 2025 season will have activity above the 1991–2020 (or 30-year) average. They predict that 2025 will have 17 named storms (as compared to the 30-year average of 14.4).

• They project 85 named storm days (versus the 30-year average of 69.4 days).

• Nine of the 17 named storms predicted for 2025 are likely to develop into hurricanes (as compared to the 30-year average of 7.2).

• Thirty-five (35) hurricane days were predicted (as compared to the 30-year average of 27 days),

• Four (4) of the nine hurricanes that are forecast for 2025 are projected to develop into ‘major’ (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricanes. The 30-year average of the number of hurricanes of these categories is 3.2.

• The probability of US and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above its long-period average.

• The probability is that at least one major hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) is predicted to track through the Caribbean between Latitude 10-20 degrees North and Longitude 88-60 degrees West is 56 per cent as compared to the 140-year average of 47 per cent.

Hindcasting is a new word that I learned while conducting research for this article. The Hindcast mode in climatology refers to the process of using historical data and computational models to simulate and analyse past weather or climate conditions and to improve disaster preparedness. It is hoped that by using last year’s historical impact information that readers will get a better sense of what is likely to happen this year and plan accordingly.

If you require assistance managing risks or solving insurance problems, Cedric E. Stephens offers free counsel and advice. To obtain information and counsel, please write to The Business Editor at business@gleanerjm.com or contact Mr Stephens directly at aegis@flowja.com. Letters and e-mails will be edited for clarity and length.

Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. For free information or counsel, write to: aegis@flowja.com or business@gleanerjm.com