5 months ago
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Jamaica recorded a slight 0.4 per cent decline in annual remittance inflows to US$3.36 billion in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline, according to the Bank of Jamaica, BOJ, which regulates the market.
The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, influenced by trade and other protectionist policies under new US President Donald Trump. The United States is Jamaica’s main source market for remittances.
“The main downside risks relate to lower remittance inflows associated with lower growth in source market countries,” the Bank of Jamaica said in its latest Quarterly Monetary Policy Report released last month.
Remittances are funds sent as gifts to individuals. Two-thirds of Jamaica’s remittances originate from the US, 12 per cent from the UK, around 9.0 per cent from Canada, 8.0 per cent from the Cayman Islands, and about 6.0 per cent from the rest of the world.
BOJ Governor Richard Byles further cautioned at his last press conference that potential economic policy changes among Jamaica’s main trading partners could have “adverse implications for remittance and tourism inflows into the economy, as well as repercussions for inflation expectations”.
Remittances are Jamaica’s second-largest source of foreign inflows after tourism. The US is also Jamaica’s largest source of foreign visitors.
Pronouncements by Trump, including threats to block remittances from undocumented workers, the imposition and removal of tariffs, and restrictions on diversity hiring, are expected to affect remittance flows. Jamaicans are already talking about the potential impact. Blogger ‘Polyunemployed’ said on X that “unfortunately, we exist in the shadow of the USA”, while another blogger, ‘Sixburgh’, repeated the often used and well-known phrase “if America sneezes, Jamaica catches the cold”.
Remittances are down but still close to record levels, and well above the US$2.4 billion mark recorded in 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global reset.
The pandemic initially led to widespread job losses and government interventions to ease economic burdens. This led to remittance inflows of US$3.49 billion in 2021, followed by marginal declines in subsequent years to US$3.44 billion in 2022, US$3.37 billion in 2023, and US$3.36 billion in 2024.
The BOJ compares Jamaica to three specific countries in Latin American as remittance peers, every month. For year 2024, Guatemala’s inflows rose by 8.6 per cent, Mexico’s by 2.3 per cent, and El Salvador’s by 1.7 per cent, whereas Jamaica’s flows shrank by 0.4 per cent.
In 2024, Jamaica faced mid-year remittance dips due to the passage of Hurricane Beryl but almost reversed that decline to close the year, according to conglomerate Grace Kennedy in a September interview. GraceKennedy, which operates its remittance service in partnership with Western Union and is a heavy-hitter in the market, reported that the closure of some remittance stores because of Hurricane Beryl, led to a slowdown in inflows in the month of July.
Central bank data showed a nearly five per cent drop in remittance inflows for that month, from US$303 million in 2023 to US$289 million in 2024. Although the decline was partially rolled back later in the year, it was insufficient to boost the full-year’s remittance tally above the prior year.
English (US) ·