Three make or break business decisions for 2026

In a few weeks, we will receive one of the most-telling economic signals since Hurricane Melissa, the release of the fourth-quarter 2025 JCC Business and Consumer Confidence Surveys conducted by Market Research Services Limited.

The results will matter because confidence functions as a leading indicator, moving ahead of observed changes in investment, revenue, employment and balance sheets.

Just weeks before Melissa made landfall, optimism was high. The third-quarter 2025 Business Confidence Index had surged almost seven per cent, while nearly two-thirds of firms believed it was a good time to invest.

Consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in more than two decades. Notably, unemployment had fallen to a record low of 3.3 per cent. On paper, Jamaica would have been entering 2026 with positive momentum. Then one disaster erased a year of gains.

The forthcoming results will be the first full-quarter reading of sentiment since October 28, 2025. History tells us that confidence will not shake evenly. Some firms will adapt, others will stall, and unfortunately many will quietly exit.

What makes this period especially unforgiving is that Jamaica does not operate in isolation or a stable, enabling external environment. Indeed, business confidence across our major trading partners highlights a fragile global backdrop.

The USA and Canada are showing tentative signs of recovery, but demand remains constrained and geopolitical tension is a growing concern. The UK, by contrast, has seen confidence deteriorate sharply, with taxation, cost pressures and uncertainty weighing heavily on hiring and investment. In simple terms, external demand may be weak, capital will remain cautious, and shocks will travel faster across borders.

It is why 2026 is not a year for blind optimism. It is a year where the quality of leadership decisions will determine which businesses stabilise, which scale, and which silently shut down. The margin for error has narrowed. Enterprises that endure will be those that deliberately upgrade how they think, plan, generate revenue and manage costs.

Against that backdrop, there are three decisions that have earned the title ‘Make or Break’, primarily because they directly address structural weaknesses that external volatility exposes. Taken together, they can fundamentally alter the trajectory of your business within 12–24 months.

Activate an advisory board and meet monthly.

Small businesses are more vulnerable today and it is not because owners lack passion, ambition or commitment, but because complexity has outpaced solo decision-making. One strong hand still cannot clap. Economic volatility, AI disruption, global upheaval, fast-paced competition, climate risk, FX exposure, labour instability, and changing consumer behaviour have collapsed already narrow rooms for mistakes. In this context, isolated leadership is now, more than ever, a major liability.

However, an advisory board is not governance theatre or public relations optics. We are talking about sound risk management infrastructure. Research from Harvard Business School and MIT Sloan consistently shows that firms with active advisory input outperform peers in decision quality, speed, and survival during shocks. The mechanism is simple: diversified thinking reduces blind spots. A well-functioning advisory board delivers three strategic power punches:

It replaces intuition-only decisions with stress-tested judgment.

It forces earlier course correction, when options still exist.

It improves resource and capital allocation by separating data-driven signals from noise.

Let us also be clear that frequent meetings are essential. In volatile environments, quarterly or even bimonthly feedback loops are too slow. A monthly rhythm allows leaders to track cash flow, pricing pressure, customer patterns, and mitigate operational risk in almost real time.

Then there are accountability and behavioural effects. Leaders who are stretched beyond “I am the boss” boundaries know they must clarify decisions to competent peers differently. They think more clearly, operate with more discipline, and manage with evidence rather than emotion.

Hold a strategic retreat and leave with a 3-to-5-year plan grounded in reality

Many small businesses say they have a strategy but, in my experience, few can articulate it, and even fewer have one documented. What they often have is a set of short-term goals disconnected from macro conditions, capacity constraints and risk exposure.

A strategic retreat is not about inspiration. It is alignment with reality. The 2026/2027 landscape will be shaped by constrained credit and hurricane recovery. Businesses need a medium-term map, beyond a 12-month expense budget. The evidence is abundant on this: firms that plan beyond the annual cycle are more likely to invest earlier in diversification, avoid overexposure to single volatile markets, products or services, allocate resources better, manage capital more efficiently, and recover faster from shocks.

The retreat should force clarity on questions many businesses avoid:

What revenue streams are fragile under stress?

Which costs are structurally misaligned with value?

Where does the business depend on assumptions that no longer hold?

What must be true by 2027 for this business to remain viable?

For many MSMEs, the 24 months should focus on a limited number of strategic objectives, such as revenue diversification across customers, products or markets; profit and margin protection in the face of rising costs; operational resilience, continuity and redundancy; and execution capacity. Without a retreat that creates a reference point, every opportunity feels urgent and every crisis will feel existential. A proper retreat builds internal confidence and focus, as decisions become more proactive and less reactive. In uncertain times, strategy is less predictive and more about preparation.

Hire a sales coach and meet monthly

Sales is often the most under-structured function in small businesses, yet it determines everything else. Data from McKinsey and Bain consistently shows that a disciplined sales process can outperform peers by over 20 per cent in revenue growth, even in slow or contracting markets. Market-driven sales coaching improves lead generation and conversion, pricing confidence, sales cycle length, and most critically, receivables.

In times like these, the businesses that thrive are not always those with the best products or services. It is those that can consistently manage price sensitivity, demonstrate value, justify price, differentiate and convert.

One love.

Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA and a certified trainer in Entrepreneurship.