Tropical Storm Erin strengthening, could become major hurricane near Caribbean

Tropical Storm Erin is gaining strength in the Atlantic and could reach major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, forecasters said Thursday.

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As of Thursday morning, Erin was located more than 800 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds increasing from 50 mph to 60 mph. The storm is expected to shift west-northwest today, following a forecast track that has trended westward and southward in recent days — raising the chances of impacts for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

The National Hurricane Center said Erin will be moving over progressively warmer waters with low wind shear, conditions that are favorable for intensification. The storm could become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday, and potentially reach Category 3 strength over the weekend as it brushes close to the northeast Caribbean.

Even if the storm’s core passes north of the islands, forecasters expect high surf, dangerous rip currents, heavy rain and gusty winds from Puerto Rico to Martinique, with the greatest impacts in the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico starting Friday night.

Beyond the Caribbean, Erin is expected to turn north between two areas of high pressure — one over the eastern United States and another east of Bermuda. The exact timing and location of that turn remain uncertain, which will determine any potential impacts to the U.S. East Coast or Bermuda next week.

Forecasters currently consider the probability of a U.S. East Coast landfall low, but warn that high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely regardless of the storm’s track. Bermuda is also being urged to closely monitor Erin’s progress in the coming days.