When immigration policy becomes business risk

Last week’s US announcement of a “permanent pause” on migration from several developing countries is more than a foreign policy headline, it is a wake-up call for Jamaica. Although we were not named, the precedent is unmistakable: immigration pathways, labour mobility, and diaspora engagement can now shift with the stroke of a pen. For Jamaican businesses, that kind of volatility cuts directly into the country’s economic engine, remittances, seasonal labour programmes, foreign talent pipelines, investment flows, and even domestic consumer spending.

Global disruption is no longer an occasional tremor; it has become the operating environment. Boardrooms around the world feel it daily, and Jamaica is no exception. From escalating trade rivalries and tightening immigration regimes to shifting alliances and regulatory headwinds, geopolitics has moved from the periphery of executive conversation to the very centre of strategic planning. Leaders who treat global developments as background noise are already behind the curve.

For small, open economies like Jamaica, heavily dependent on external markets, foreign exchange inflows, and international connectivity, geopolitical awareness is not academic. It is existential.

Geo-politics – Just Another Catchphrase?

No, not this time. To ground the conversation, let’s put the meaning plainly, geopolitics looks at how global power dynamics and political decisions influence the economic realities we operate in every day.

From Global Events to Local Strategy

The old view that geopolitics belonged to diplomats and foreign ministries is long gone. Today’s businesses and C-suite executives must interpret global signals with the same fluency they bring to financial statements.

• A shift in US immigration policy affects Jamaica’s labour flows and remittance patterns.

• A port disruption in Asia reverberates through manufacturing timelines in Kingston.

• A new financial rule in Europe changes compliance costs for local banks overnight.

In other words, geopolitical events travel. And they travel fast.

The US Factor: Jamaica’s Inescapable Strategic Linkage

For Jamaican companies, this interconnectedness means that the strategic horizon must be widened. Decisions once driven only by internal data and market behaviour must now factor in elections, sanctions, diplomatic tensions, technological sovereignty debates, and even climate-related geopolitics.

The late November 2025 US ‘permanent pause’ on new visa issuance, migration from so-called ‘third world countries’ underscores the point: Migration and mobility rules can reset overnight, with direct spillover to remittances and labour flows. This is more than rhetoric; it is a concrete recalibration of US immigration policy. While Jamaica is not explicitly listed among the affected countries, the move sends a clear signal to Jamaican businesses that global policy shifts can affect local operations overnight.

Our economic synchrony with the United States, tourism, exports, remittances, investment makes US political cycles uniquely important. Traditionally, Jamaica adapts to whichever administration is in place. Today, the shifts are more abrupt and carry higher stakes. Any tightening of labour mobility policies would have immediate implications for our seasonal work programmes, remittance inflows, talent pipelines, and business staffing strategies. This is geopolitics in real time and Jamaican executives cannot afford to treat it as a distant policy matter.

Executives must now ask:

• How could a change in US trade or migration policy alter demand or workforce stability?

• What would a more protectionist or isolationist US stance mean for Jamaican exporters or BPOs?

• How should organisations prepare for volatility in global financial markets triggered by US electoral outcomes?

Ignoring these questions is no longer a luxury.

From Passive Awareness to Active Executive Intelligence

Geopolitical awareness is not about taking sides. It’s executive risk intelligence.

To perform in volatility, Jamaican businesses need three capabilities:

1. Strategic peripheral vision – spot global inflection points early and anticipate second-order impacts locally.

2. Scenario discipline – move past annual plans to multiple futures with triggers, thresholds, and pre-approved responses.

3. Opportunity positioning – treat disruption as a pipeline for new markets, partners, routes, and innovation.

We need leaders who connect these dots with foresight, not after the fact.

Building a Modern Geopolitical Risk Capability

Most Jamaican firms are micro and small, with leaders wearing every hat as ‘head cook and bottle washer’. The challenge is building governance and decision discipline that can hold steady in a world that keeps moving the goalposts.

And, let’s be clear: strategic discipline isn’t a ‘big company’ privilege. Any business that wants to stay competitive needs basic foresight, risk awareness, and proactive planning.

Three practical moves:

1. Set a quarterly or biannual geopolitical briefing (economic shifts, trade, tensions, cyber-regulation, emerging markets).

2. Build a layered risk map (elections, sanctions, regulation, demographics, climate) alongside supply chain and cyber-regulation.

3. Strengthen regional and institutional ties (CARICOM, IPAs, multilaterals, diplomatic networks) to get earlier intelligence and faster support.

Net-net (bottom line): Treat geopolitics as a core business variable, not background news.

CARICOM’s Untapped Strategic Leverage

CARICOM’s collective leverage is underused, but, when aligned, it can drive better trade terms, stronger climate financing, and more influence. For Jamaican firms expanding regionally, that translates into real advantages: harmonised rules, integrated value chains, shared logistics, and coordinated advocacy.

But, let’s be honest. If many of you are like me, the endless rounds of CARICOM discussions can feel far removed from the realities of running a business and navigating rising costs.

Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty

The global environment isn’t settling down; volatility is now the operating baseline. Top-performing businesses will:

• build geopolitical foresight into planning;

• communicate risk clearly;

• adapt fast;

• use scenarios to strengthen resilience; and

• make decisive, data-led choices grounded in external realities.

No, this isn’t pessimism, it’s preparedness – converting uncertainty into strategic clarity and confident action.

Jamaica’s leaders have both an opportunity and an obligation to raise the bar on risk, resilience, and competitiveness. The world is moving fast; our boardrooms must keep up.

The Bottom Line

When the world is changing faster than your strategy, it is hurting your bottom line.

Geopolitical awareness is not optional.

It is now a baseline expectation for business and leadership excellence.

Business leaders who embrace this mindset will not only safeguard their organisations, they will position them to thrive, innovate and lead in a world where the rules of engagement are being rewritten in real time.

Dr Charlene Ashley, International Business Strategist / Organisational Behaviour Consultant & Marketing StrategistEmail: cashley@theconsultancyinc.comDr Ashley has uniquely carved out a multidisciplinary career at the nexus of business strategy, organisational behaviour, marketing & financial management, a combination few have mastered. She blends the science of human behaviour with the rigour of project management and strategic business design, anchored by internationally recognised certifications and global standards to deliver models, frameworks and transformational results across industries, countries, and cultures.