Yaneek Page | Navigating 2025’s North American turbulence

It has only been 20 days since Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States of America, and the global turbulence is more violent than even the pundits had predicted.

In December, I warned Jamaicans to brace for impact from the return of the ‘America first’ doctrine, and now, three weeks on, we are already seeing entire industries in free fall, geopolitical upheaval, and growing social and economic instability.

There are still 1,441 days to go in this term in office, and it would appear that a third term could be on the cards, if efforts to outmanoeuvre the United States are successful. At this point, the only safe bet is that we’re in for an extremely volatile ride over the next four years.

If the current projections hold, the next wave of sweeping executive orders, radical policies and groundbreaking legislative agenda will have even more far-reaching and disruptive effects. Governments, businesses, and citizens around the world must act now to adapt, diversify, and build resilience against the impending external shocks. As we say in Jamaica, when America sneezes, we catch a cold – our fortunes, as of now, are inextricably connected to our neighbours to the north.

Whether you are a business leader, entrepreneur, small business owner or reader with an avid interest in business, I urge you to reread my column published on December 1, 2024.

Every prediction has come to fruition, and the shockwaves are just beginning to reverberate beyond US shores. It will be months before we feel the full effects of the fallout and, by then, the next tsunami will be upon us. The stakes are high and the opportunities minute.

Here’s what is predicted to come next:

1. Wipe-out of US foreign aid and development support valued at billions annually. This will directly impact funding for poverty alleviation, climate mitigation, disaster relief, education, security and health programmes. The gravity of the impending loss hit home this week when it was reported that Prime Minister Holness assembled a task force to assess the potential fallout from the withdrawal of US aid.

2. Visa restrictions and immigration overhaul: Mass deportations are the tip of the iceberg. It is expected that Trump will tighten visitor visa issuance and eliminate extended family immigration. There are over 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, with 327,000 estimated to be from the Caribbean. Jamaicans are believed to make up a significant percentage of undocumented Caribbean migrants.

3. The Government of Jamaica may face increased political pressure to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. The threat of sanctions can’t be ruled out. As we have seen with US/Canada relations over the past week, there’s no such thing as an untouchable US ally.

4. Tighter protectionist economic policies: Perhaps the most impactful of all is that the whispers about the possibility of remittance taxation are getting louder. Such a move would be a major blow to Jamaica, and severely impact the financial lifelines on which many families, businesses and communities rely. Remember that remittances are still Jamaica’s most robust and reliable net earner of foreign exchange.

Plan for chaos

It is important to note that many of the whirlwind changes happening within the United States represent a worrying shift from established democratic norms. There is a move to increase the concentration of power, suppress diversity initiatives, bypass legislative processes, and neglect basic ethical standards.

Historically in US governance, any significant policy changes are typically preceded by thorough policy impact analyses. It’s even more robust when there is major legislative change.

These analyses involve evaluating the potential economic, social, and environmental consequences of proposed actions, ensuring that decisions are informed, effective, and aligned with the public interest, which are hallmarks of good governance, transparency, accountability, and evidence-based policymaking.

For instance, the abrupt dismantling and denigration of the US Agency for International Development, USAID, appears to have been executed without a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences, leading to significant disruptions in global health and education programmes. Thousands of US diplomats have been reportedly left in limbo, with some being locked out of critical agency systems as their lives are turned upside down with the flash of a presidential pen.

The extraordinary roll-back of environmental regulations, and dismantling of civil rights safeguards, while simultaneously eliminating worker protections under OSHA, have left local governments and businesses uncertain about future compliance requirements. This creates a regulatory whiplash effect, where stakeholders don’t know whether to invest in compliance or wait for another reversal.

The result is chaos and the rapid undermining of public trust. The public expects some level of continuity and stability in governance. When policies shift erratically and with immediacy, medium-term planning becomes difficult, reducing confidence in the system.

Critics are concerned that the current administration is worse than before, because not only are the policies extreme, but their cumulative and compounding effects are exponentially more disruptive than if introduced in isolation.

Many of our friends, family, colleagues and allies in the United States are not okay. Americans are on the cusp of dire consequences – economic turmoil, institutional breakdown, legal chaos, and social instability – which will make recovery and global credibility a herculean feat.

It is a historic and precarious time, especially for countries that are over-reliant on the United States’ economy, security, technological landscape, social systems and financial infrastructure.

One love!

Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA, and a certified trainer in entrepreneurship.yaneek.page@gmail.com