2 months ago
13
QUESTION: What do you think the effect will be, if any, that an influx of deportees will have on the economy? – Reader
BUSINESSWISE: What will happen to Jamaica if they all come home? That is a timely and constructive question, which demands our attention and careful consideration now more than ever. The effects would be significant, and I am conflicted on the net impact.
Just last week the Trump administration announced that it would adopt a new and more drastic position regarding those who have overstayed their US visas. This signals a huge turning point for us, in terms of the numbers of Jamaicans who could be repatriated from the United States.
Since January 2025, the US Department of Homeland Security has been focused primarily on removing people who have been “legally ordered for deportation”.
As of November 2024, according to official United States government data 5,120 Jamaican nationals in their system, all are confirmed to have been legally ordered for deportation, that is, have final removal orders issued by an immigration judge or the Board of Immigration Appeals. Some are in custody, but many are not.
The summer heat is on, literally and figuratively, as last week, US and international press reported that senior DHS officials issued a frightening new directive to their rank-and-file officers, to “turn the creative knob up to 11” in apprehending unlawful residents, some of whom are loosely referred to as “collaterals”, that is, bystanders in the vicinity of those ordered detained.
Most of who “ran off” on their visas are “collaterals” who stay under the radar.
Some 12,000 Jamaicans entered the United States and overstayed their visas, without departing on time. That’s for year 2023 alone. They are deportable, according to the DHS.
In 2022, over 16,000 overstayed.
Over the past decade, more than 100,000 Jamaicans might have been living in the United States unlawfully. If most are deported, they would dwarf the 2,500 people that the minister of foreign affairs and foreign trade said the government expected to be repatriated soon. Note that various media reports have claimed that between 600 and 1,200 Jamaicans are deported, annually; therefore 2,500 is a huge deviation.
So what will be the economic impact, both strain and possibilities?
Many deportees return home without assets, access to their US bank accounts, or even the time to prepare for relocation. They land at the airport with a bag, some documents, a heavy dose of trauma, and no clear path forward.
The burden often falls on their families, some already buckling under financial pressure. Some have no family. No home.
At best, the impact is overcrowded homes and short-term joblessness; at worst, deviance. Then there’s pressure on government services, public health, even policing in some communities that might perceive the forced returnees as ‘troublemakers’.
As for the positive possibilities: some deportees return with valuable skills. Some have experience in construction, trucking, logistics, elder care, or trade work. If harnessed well, that’s human capital, and rich talent pools.
One of the most striking stories I came across recently was that of a Jamaican man deported earlier this year after a routine appointment with his immigration attorney in New York. His ICE detention was swift. He was extracted without notice, no time to sort out bank accounts, sell a car, or even say goodbyes.
He is reported as saying that when he landed in Jamaica, he had nothing. He has found no job placement service, no mental health counselling, no government-issued reintegration road map. His only hope was his family who took him in.
We can’t keep responding this way. Our immediate challenge is the lack of systems to facilitate reintegration and limited social safety nets. We must build them now, or miss out.
If we can achieve orderly, staggered self-repatriation it could result in huge investments from returning residents, particularly in rural Jamaica. This could be buoyed by government incentives like home-improvement grants, tax breaks, or microloans tied to land development. Then we may benefit from rural development.
It’s not far-fetched. Consider what’s now happening in areas like St Elizabeth and Clarendon, where quiet construction projects have started on land long thought abandoned.
Another potential silver lining is the political climate in the US has caused a shift in mindset among some members of the Jamaican diaspora. Some are re-energised to build their home.
We are seeing signs in the real estate sector that signal some are preparing for the worst. Investing more in Jamaica means spurring economic activity and creating jobs across virtually all sectors.
As we learn more about the government’s new reintegration task force, we hope for tangible support that can drive the positive economic impact you are hoping for as an entrepreneur. This should include:
• Skills mapping: cataloguing deportees’ work experience;
• Fast-tracked trade certification for skilled labour;
• Micro grants or tools programmes for small business start-ups; and
• Targeted housing vouchers in areas with underutilised property.
So, all things considered, the question isn’t simply: ‘Will this affect Jamaica?’ It is already impacting us. The real question might be: ‘How soon can we be ready for what’s on the horizon, and are we strategic enough to eke out silver linings beyond these storm clouds?’
One love!
Yaneek Page is the programme lead for Market Entry USA, and a certified trainer in entrepreneurship.
English (US) ·