Tropical Storm MelissaPossible NHC Development Area(s)

After a relatively quiet start to the tropical season, the Caribbean could see renewed activity this week as a tropical disturbance, identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as Invest 98L, shows increasing potential for development. Forecasters say the system could become Tropical Storm Melissa sometime this week.

At present, it’s too early to pinpoint which areas might be affected, but the Greater Antilles, parts of Central America, and Florida should all remain alert. The NHC is closely monitoring the tropical wave as it moves westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea, running higher-resolution computer models to better understand its potential path and intensity.

Possible scenarios for Melissa

Meteorologists have outlined three primary tracks for the developing system:

  1. Quick Northward Turn: Melissa could strengthen over the central Caribbean, curl northward over Hispaniola, then shift northeast out to sea.

  2. Westward Track into Central America: The system may continue moving west, impacting Central America directly.

  3. Later Northward Curve, Potential U.S. Impacts: A later northward turn early to mid-next week could bring effects to Cuba, the Bahamas, and parts of the U.S.

Severe Weather Alert for Jamaica

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has issued a Severe Weather Alert effective until 5 p.m. Thursday, October 23, 2025. Residents are urged to prepare for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing into the weekend. Authorities warn that a Tropical Storm Watch may be issued as the situation evolves.

Residents are advised to stay informed through official channels and take necessary precautions to safeguard lives and property.