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IN THE CARIBBEAN: The US Navy's aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford which is now in the south Caribbean Sea as part of the US' military build-up to counter narco-terrorists and narco-traffickers from Venezuela. - Photo courtesy WikipediaTHE Central Bank says ongoing US-Venezuela tensions in the southern Caribbean are having the spillover effect of economic uncertainty in TT.
The bank made this comment in its final monetary policy report for 2025, released on December 31.
"Domestically, the fluid geopolitical tension between the US and neighbouring Venezuela is contributing to building economic uncertainty."
The tension began in August with the deployment of the guided missile destroyers – USS Gravely, Sampson and Jason Dunham – to the southern Caribbean. The force has since expanded to include the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford and its strike group, US amphibious assault vessels, the nuclear attack submarine USS Newport News and members of the US Marine Corps 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU).
The MEU's last engagement in the Caribbean was in the US military invasion of Grenada in October 1983, codenamed Operation Urgent Fury. The MEU has been in TT twice this year for training exercises with local security forces.
TT has allowed the US military access to the Piarco International and ANR Robinson International Airports for transit flights for an indefinite time period. US Marines established a military radar system at the ANR Robinson International Airport in November.
Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has publicly supported all issues related to the deployment (including US military strikes on alleged drug vessels in the region).
Since September 2, at least 107 people have been killed in strikes on 31 alleged drug vessels.
This week, US President Donald Trump said an alleged onshore drug facility was destroyed by a drone strike and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was involved.
Persad-Bissessar has also publicly condemned local and regional critics of the deployment. She has said the US is the only nation in the world that can protect TT from any external threat.
The bank said under these conditions, "economic growth is somewhat tentative."
The bank added, "Higher energy production in the second quarter of 2025, driven by two new natural gas fields, may be partially offset by a non-energy sector that is losing momentum across several sub-sectors."
The bank said, " This suggests that the domestic economy is still in need of support to engender a sustained recovery."
The International Monetary Fund, in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, projected world output to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2025, marginally down from 3.3 per cent in 2024.
Economic growth in the US has shown durability, despite challenges in the labour market and above-target inflation.
On the other hand, the bank said other major economies are experiencing softer economic growth combined with stubbornly elevated inflation.
International energy commodity prices are a barometer of overall economic conditions. Crude oil prices (West Texas Intermediate-WTI) slipped below US$60 per barrel (bbl), averaging US$59.57/bbl in November 2025, and remained below US$60/bbl during December 2025.
The 2025/20265 budget has been pegged against crude oil and natural gas prices of US$73.25 per barrel and US$4.25 per mmbtu, respectively. The crude oil price for the budget has traditionally been determined based on WTI price changes
On December, WTI and Brent crude oil were trading at US$57.91 and US$61.29 respectively. The gas price was US3.729 per mmbtu.
Last year's budget was set on oil and gas prices of US$77.80 per barrel and US$3.59 per mmbtu respectively.
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