Deeper consequences of Trump's tariff war for Caricom

Realistically, the economies of Trinidad and Tobago and the Caribbean cannot in the immediate future live and prosper without continuing reliance on exports into the United States market. And while it may not be the same in dollars for the US if it were to lose the T&T and English-Speaking Caribbean’s markets for its goods and services, regional countries not being able to earn from their exports to pay for US-made goods and services, because of the tariff barriers, will make the US an even more attractive destination for immigrants from the region seeking economic refuge.

President Donald Trump and his advisers have to think beyond forcing their tariff measures on the region as a means of exacting some form of revenge; more so because the US has a healthy balance of trade surplus with the English-speaking Caribbean.

One report on trade between the US and the region states that in 2023, the US surplus in goods with the 14 independent Caricom nations was $7.4 billion, and in 2024 it was $5.8 billion. This means the US should really have no contest with the region.

And while it is certain that the US surpluses in trade with the region is not of the nature that will in any way cause concern in relation to America’s overall trade, if it were to lose the Caribbean market, it’s in the interest of the United States that the region does not slip into becoming a basket case because of a wholescale slide into an economic and poverty-ridden region in the American backdoor.

America’s southern border leads directly into and out of the Caribbean, to the point where the US will have to play host to hundreds of thousands of immigrants who will seek desperate shelter in the US from a Caribbean left stranded by the imposition of increased tariffs.

The reasoning is simple but powerful: the United States will be courting the real possibility of an immigrant explosion on its Florida shores as people from the Caribbean seek a way out from a poverty-stricken region because of tariff barriers to its export earnings from the US.

If such a situation were to develop in the English-speaking Caribbean, short of economic possibilities because of the closure and or dramatic decline in the earnings of nations of the region, drugs and arms dealers will expand their nefarious trade through the region to the high-value consumption markets of the US.

Surely, President Trump, now fighting an immigration war on the US border with Latin America, will not want to deal with illegal immigrants streaming into the US from Caribbean nations badly affected by his tariff wars, especially against countries with which he has no real basis to drag into his tariff war.

It is, therefore, the moment for deep Caricom discussions and planning to make the above and other points to the US through energised and informed dialogue with officials in Washington.

Alongside such diplomacy, it is beyond time that the region aims to broaden its trade with strategically important regions and sub-regions of the world. We cannot remain hog-tied to a one-dimensional international relationship.