Drier conditions predicted across Caribbean for next 3 months

The Barbados-based Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) is forecasting drier-than-usual conditions across much of the Caribbean over the next three months, with exceptions in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao), parts of Jamaica, the coastal Guianas, and some Lesser Antilles islands.

According to CIMH’s latest seasonal forecast released Monday, the number of wet spells is expected to be below normal in most of the region, while very wet spells are likely in the ABC Islands, sections of the Lesser Antilles, parts of Jamaica, and the coastal Guianas.

“A higher than usual number of wet spells is forecast for Belize, Barbados, Grand Cayman, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, while a higher than usual number of very wet spells is forecast for the Greater Antilles,” CIMH said.

The institute warned that the drier conditions could accelerate the depletion of large water reservoirs and soil moisture in the ABC Islands, coastal Guianas, and Lesser Antilles. Conversely, flood potential is expected to remain low in Belize and the islands but high in the Guianas until early February.

The forecast period, spanning January to March, corresponds with the Caribbean Dry Season, which typically peaks in March. February marks the transition from the secondary wet season into the short dry season for much of the Guianas and continues the region’s cool season.

CIMH noted that continued unusual warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic, coupled with a weakening La Niña in the Pacific, is likely to slightly reduce severe weather activity, especially in the Guianas in January. Nonetheless, there remains high potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards in areas prone to heavy rainfall.

The agency also highlighted short dry spells increasing in frequency, with generally comfortable temperatures through February. Episodes of heat discomfort are expected to be limited, mostly affecting inland areas of Belize, the Guianas, and Trinidad in March.

Finally, CIMH warned of drought impacts for the ABC Islands, the Windward Islands, southwest Belize, and Grand Cayman if below-average rainfall persists.