Filly Burning Hedge to top rivals in St Leger

BURNING HEDGE’s 1000 Guineas performance, a five and three-quarter length win in 1:41.3, booked a classic Battle of the Sexes for Sunday’s Jamaica St Leger at 10 furlongs, tackling colts, SENSATIONAL SOUL and BOB THE BUILDER, who battled out the finish of the 2000 Guineas in a much slower 1:42.4.

Were it the other way around, colts having a 1.1 second winning time to their credit, purists would have written off the filly, BURNING HEDGE, having any chance in the 10-furlong St Leger.

Despite being champion two-year-old last season, comprehensively beating her peers, colts included, in December’s Jamaica Two-Year-Old Stakes, BURNING HEDGE remains haunted by the racing maxim, ‘a good colt is always better than a good filly’.

However, there is also another famous racing lingo, ‘horses don’t read form’, nor do they conform to railbirds’ gender talk. Therefore, BURNING HEDGE’s 1:41.3 must be taken exactly for what it is, a rule-of-thumb six-length difference, clocked 24 hours before the colts’ 1:42.4.

Breaking down the internal splits of both Guineas races, the colts were progressively faster for the first six furlongs, carried for five furlongs by a sprinter, ANOTHER ONE, being tracked by BOB THE BUILDER and I DREAM AGAIN, both taking over a five-furlong split of 1:00.3, almost a second quicker than the fillies’ 1:01.2.

Travelling easier than I DREAM AGAIN, BOB THE BUILDER hit the two-furlong marker in 1:14.1, suggesting that he would have been five lengths ahead of HANSA, who led the fillies into the lane in 1:15.1 with a wound-up BURNING HEDGE two and a quarter lengths behind her.

Hypothetically, BURNING HEDGE would have had seven and a quarter lengths to make up on BOB THE BUILDER, two furlongs out, were she running at 1000 Guineas pace, putting her three lengths behind eventual winner SENSATIONAL SOUL.

Straightening four and a quarter lengths behind BOB THE BUILDER, SENSATIONAL SOUL chased down his rival, pointed midway the last half-furlong and pulled off for a three-quarter length win.

Would BURNING HEDGE have been able to rally from three lengths behind SENSATIONAL SOUL to outfinish both colts? The answer lies over the last two furlongs.

Though the colts were a second ahead after six furlongs, they shared identical seven-furlong splits with the fillies, 1:28.2, suggesting that the finishing speed of the last two furlongs of the 1000 Guineas was 2.1 seconds faster, resulting in 1:41.3 clocked by BURNING HEDGE.

Rule of thumb applied, 2.1 seconds equates to 11 lengths, suggesting that BURNING HEDGE would have blown past both BOB THE BUILDER and SENSATIONAL SOUL at a mile, hence her being even more lethal at 10 furlongs.

The colts crawling the final two furlongs should come as no surprise. LOCKDOWN, a maiden, turned for home ahead of SENSATIONAL SOUL, two and a half lengths behind BOB THE BUILDER.

BURNING HEDGE’s pedigree suggests she should get 10 furlongs. A daughter of Hedge Fund, BURNING HEDGE’s dam is Burning Clearance (Burning Marque-Special Clearance).

Burning Marque sired two-time Horse of the Year Saint Cecelia. Special Clearance is a daughter of 1987 Florida Derby winner, Cryptoclearance, who also finished fourth and third, respectively, behind Alysheba in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

The colts also have pedigree on their side, SENSATIONAL SOUL being a full brother to Toona Ciliata (Soul Warrior-Red Gold), who lost the 2019 Guineas and St Leger to Triple Crown-winning stablemate, Supreme Soul.

BOB THE BUILDER, who pressed the entire pace of the 2000 Guineas, breaking from an inside draw, is also sired by Hedge Fund out of the Miracle Man mare, Sound of Miracle, suggesting that he should also get the distance, especially if different tactics are employed by Phillip Parchment replacing Raddesh Roman.