Home sales in USA are up for the month but down for the year

Sales of previously occupied US homes rose in November from October levels, but slowed compared to a year earlier for the first time since May, despite average long-term mortgage rates holding near their low point for the year.

Existing home sales rose 0.5 per cent last month from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million units, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Friday. Sales fell 1 per cent compared with November last year. The latest sales figure came in slightly below the 4.14 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.

Through the first 11 months of this year, home sales are down 0.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

“It’s possible that 2025, unless December (sales) figures really improve, we may be technically slightly down from one year ago,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

One factor limiting home sales is weaker demand for condominiums. Sales of condos are down 6.0 per cent so far this year, Yun noted.

Despite sluggish sales, home prices continued to climb last month. The national median sales price increased 1.2 per cent in November from a year earlier to US$409,200, an all-time high for any November on data going back to 1999.

Home prices have risen on an annual basis for 29 months in a row, even as the housing market has been mired in a slump that began in 2022 when mortgage rates began climbing from historic lows. Sales of previously occupied US homes sank last year to their lowest level in nearly 30 years.

Sales have been stuck at around a 4 million annual pace, now going back to 2023. That’s well short of the 5.2 million annual pace that’s historically been the norm.

Mortgage rate declined

Home sales got a boost this autumn as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage declined at the end of October to 6.17 per cent, the lowest level in more than a year.

Even so, affordability remains a challenge for many aspiring homeowners, especially first-time buyers who don’t have equity from an existing home to put toward a new home purchase. Uncertainty over the economy and job market are also keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.

A shortage of homes for sale, especially in the more affordable end of the market, continues to weigh especially on first-time homebuyers. They accounted for 30 per cent of home sales last month. Historically, they made up 40 per cent of home sales.

An annual survey of homebuyers by NAR showed first-time buyers accounted for an all-time low 21 per cent of home purchases between July 2024 and June 2025, while the average age of such homebuyers rose to a record high of 40.

Homes purchased last month likely went under contract in September and October, when the average rate on a 30-year mortgage ranged from 6.5 per cent to 6.17 per cent, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates have mostly remained close to their October low in recent weeks.

Home shoppers who can afford to buy at current mortgage rates benefited from a wider selection of properties on the market last month than a year ago, although the number of homes for sale in November declined from the previous month.

There were 1.43 million unsold homes at the end of last month, down 5.9 per cent from October and up 7.5 per cent from November last year, NAR said.

The latest inventory snapshot remains well below the roughly 2 million homes for sale that was typical before the COVID-19 pandemic.

November’s month-end inventory translates to a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace. Traditionally, a 5- to 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers.

Yun is forecasting that existing US home sales will jump 14 per cent next year. That’s more optimistic than several other housing economist forecasts, which range from a 1.7 per cent to 9 per cent increase.

Economists generally forecast that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will remain slightly above 6 per cent next year.

-AP