Jamaica’s fertility rate drops to 1.3 — Among the lowest in the world

Jamaica now has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, according to the 2025 State of World Population report released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The country’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have — stands at just 1.3.

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That figure places Jamaica well below the replacement rate of 2.1, below the global average of 2.2, and lower than the Latin America and Caribbean regional average of 1.8. It also puts the country on par with several nations that have been grappling with long-term population decline, including Italy (1.2), Japan (1.3), South Korea (0.8), and Hungary (1.5) — all of which are highlighted in the UNFPA’s global dataset.

According to the UNFPA, economics remain one of the biggest obstacles to achieving reproductive goals.

“Out of 10,000 people who reported having or wanting to have children, 39 per cent reported that financial limitations were a factor that had affected or would affect their ability to realize their desired family size,” the report notes.

The agency also warns against blaming women for low birth rates — a trend that’s emerged in political rhetoric and media framing across several countries.

“Holding women primarily responsible for fertility rates… harms women while failing to recognize the role of men in conception and reproduction,” the report states.

Last year, Jamaica’s Health Minister, Dr. Christopher Tufton, encouraged women to consider motherhood if they can afford it.

“If you can afford it, … why not have?” he asked, saying that the low fertility and birth rate in the country is an issue that needs to be “assertively looked at” over time.

The report challenges alarmist narratives about population collapse, urging countries to focus not on birth rates, but on whether people are able to freely make reproductive decisions.

“This crisis is not rooted in individual reproductive decisions that fail to align with the needs of a state or economy,” the report says, “but in environments and policy choices that are misaligned with the desires of individuals.”

Across the 14 countries surveyed in-depth for the report, nearly one in five people said they were unable to have as many children as they wanted, while economic pressures were the most commonly cited barrier. Jamaica was not included in the qualitative survey, but its statistical profile signals a shift in demographic dynamics that may have long-term implications for workforce planning, aging, and healthcare systems.

Rather than implementing pro-natalist incentives, the UNFPA recommends that governments invest in healthcare, childcare, education access, gender equality, and economic security — the real drivers of reproductive decision-making.

As more Caribbean countries experience falling fertility rates, the report pushes for a broader policy conversation: one rooted not in panic about population size, but in ensuring reproductive rights and agency for all.