One-third of people in the Caribbean say they plan to leave within three years

Nearly one in three people across Latin America and the Caribbean say they intend to leave their country within the next three years, according to findings from the UNDP’s Democracy and Development Report 2026, based on AmericasBarometer survey data.

The report places overall migration intent at 32 percent across the region, underscoring how deeply economic conditions and institutional pressures are shaping long-term decisions about mobility.

Among those who express a desire to migrate, 58.4 percent cite lack of economic opportunity as the main driver, reinforcing the report’s central argument that migration is increasingly linked to structural development gaps rather than isolated personal choice.

Economic vulnerability shaping mobility pressures

The report situates this migration trend within broader patterns of uneven development across the region, where progress in income and human development has not translated into uniform economic security.

Using updated World Bank poverty thresholds for upper-middle-income countries (USD 8.30 per day), the report highlights significant levels of monetary poverty across several Caribbean states:

• Jamaica: 22.9 percent
• Suriname: 19.0 percent
• Belize: 19.0 percent
• Grenada: 19.0 percent
• Barbados: 15.5 percent
• Saint Lucia: 7.8 percent

Beyond headline poverty rates, the report notes that in most of these countries more than 35 percent of the population falls into a broader category of economic vulnerability—living on less than USD 17 per day. This group is described as particularly exposed to shocks such as inflation, unemployment, and climate-related disasters.

The UNDP report frames migration not as an isolated trend but as part of a wider interaction between democracy, development, and state capacity.

It highlights that migration flows in the region are closely tied to insecurity and economic constraints, and are often higher in contexts where citizens perceive weaker governance and fewer opportunities at home.

At the same time, the report notes that migration is not only outward-facing. Intraregional mobility has increased in recent years, with more movement occurring within Latin America and the Caribbean rather than exclusively toward destinations outside the region.

A structural paradox: remittances versus brain drain

The report emphasizes a long-standing tension at the heart of Caribbean development models.

On one hand, emigration provides a financial lifeline through remittances, which support household consumption, education, and basic welfare across many countries in the region.

On the other, sustained out-migration—particularly among younger and skilled workers—contributes to human capital loss, weakening domestic labor markets and reducing institutional capacity over time.

This creates what the report describes as a feedback loop: limited opportunity drives migration, while migration itself further constrains the region’s ability to expand opportunity.

Democracy under pressure from development gaps

The migration findings are part of a broader set of pressures identified in the report, including polarization, insecurity, climate stress, and uneven human development.

Across the Caribbean and Latin America, the report argues that democratic systems remain broadly intact but increasingly strained by expectations they struggle to meet—particularly in delivering security, opportunity, and upward mobility.

In this context, migration becomes both an individual strategy and a structural signal: a reflection of economic fragility and institutional limits across the region.