The Americas unresolved

The Government of the Dominican Republic just announced that the Summit of the Americas, originally scheduled for December this year, has been postponed to 2026. That is not surprising because the dynamics of the Western Hemisphere have changed dramatically in the last few weeks.

This hemisphere has always been a place of tensions and contradictions of intra-country, inter-country, and geopolitical kinds, but the level of prevailing anxiety because of the extent of military presence in the Southern Caribbean now is high.

This build-up can seemingly rival the US presence in the region in WWII, the 1962 Cuban missile confrontation with Russia, the intervention in the DR in 1965 when Juan Bosch was deposed by a military coup, the 1983 invasion of Grenada, the intervention in Haiti in 1984, the 1989 invasion of Panama, and the 2004 intervention in Haiti.

At the last Summit of the Americas in 2022, held in Los Angeles, some countries, such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, were not invited. Some countries protested.

The tensions at the summit level manifest in the lack of cohesion and impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization of American States (OAS), from which Nicaragua has withdrawn, Cuba is not invited, and Venezuela does not participate because representation is disputed.

Moreover, over the years, the OAS has become largely dysfunctional, and it is difficult to find consensus on any matter of genuine importance.

The Trump administration has expressed unhappiness about the functioning of the OAS, and that particular institution is under review by the US authorities.

The US provides upwards of 50 per cent of the funding for the OAS, which is located in Washington, DC.

Such a position was articulated by Christopher Landau, US Deputy Secretary of State, when he spoke to the OAS at a meeting in Antigua on June 26, 2025.

He expressed dissatisfaction with the OAS response to Venezuelan elections and to the gangster takeover of Haiti.

The Caribbean is vital to the functioning of the OAS, is an important entity in hemispheric matters, and is an important target in geopolitical competition by countries outside the region like Europe, China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and India.

The important post of Secretary General is now held by Albert Ramdin, who has served as Foreign Minister of Suriname and also as Deputy Secretary General of the OAS before.

Caricom holds a decisive block of votes in the OAS when it is united and often collaborates with Central America and countries in South America to enlarge that block.

The Dominican Republic will be the second Caribbean country to host the summit.

Trinidad and Tobago was the first Caribbean country to host a Summit of the Americas in 2009. Thirty-five independent sovereign states coexist in the Americas, but up to 60 countries engage in the summit.

Holding the summit in the DR is also significant because the DR shares land space with Haiti, which is a full member of Caricom.

Haiti, burdened by the legacy of an oppressive and interventionist history and selfish leaders, is by any standard a problematic country.

It is difficult to share a border with such a country—lawless, disorderly, fragmented, and susceptible to interference from anywhere, and now almost completely overrun by gangster control, which manages limited containment only with the help of international police and military troops.

Haiti is a Caribbean Gaza waiting to explode with DR as its neighbour, not involved in occupation but defensive of its interests.

When the summit does take place in the DR on a date to be fixed, it will be taking place in a country that is Caribbean with observer status in Caricom and a key country in Cariforum.

The DR is a country that is Latin American but not on the Latin American mainland.

It is a country that is heavily dependent on the United States and something of a US satellite State—a country in which the imperial encounter completely wiped out the indigenous presence, a country that distances itself from its African heritage and uneasily embraces European influence, and which plays baseball and dances meringue.

But who will be the president of Venezuela then?

Will Gustavo Petro win the election in Colombia in nine months?

What about Brazil … Nicaragua?

In what countries will current leaders be retained, and in which will we see change?

Even if full-scale military action does not take place by the USA against Venezuela, our part of the Caribbean is likely to remain unsettled for some time.

The summary elimination of boats, with alleged narco traffickers, is likely to continue and to trouble.

For Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, security risks from spillover effects will be heightened, including migration, as tensions increase and combustion impacts inside Venezuela.

It can get worse before it ever gets better.

For President Trump, a different scenario may emerge.

After the Democratic sweep on Tuesday night, the lines are drawn for midterms in the USA.

And the results of elections across Latin America over the next year could equally lead to greater alignment or to sharper dissonance in our hemisphere.

And resistance in the US may prompt responses in this region.