Tropical Storm Melissa to become major hurricane near Jamaica

Deadly flooding and landslides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have marked Tropical Storm Melissa’s slow crawl through the northern Caribbean, and now the strengthening system is headed toward Jamaica, with days of torrential rain, dangerous winds, and life-threatening storm surge.

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Jamaica is expected to bear the brunt of the storm’s triple threat, with a potential landfall late Monday or early Tuesday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica, with strong winds expected to reach the island tonight. Southern Haiti remains under a hurricane watch.

The 7:00 a.m. update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center shows a projected path that may take it across three major parishes:

• Landfall possible near Clarendon
• Moving inland through St Catherine
• Exiting the island near St Mary

Melissa has barely moved in recent days, tracking slowly westward at roughly 70 mph wind strength as of Saturday morning. That sluggish pace has worsened conditions across the region, soaking communities in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. At least three people have died in Haiti, including two killed in a landslide, according to the Haitian Civil Protection Agency. One death has also been reported in the Dominican Republic, where officials say more than 1,000 people are displaced.

The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane by Sunday afternoon, with meteorologists warning that a Category 5 landfall in Jamaica cannot be ruled out. If that occurs, Melissa could become the strongest hurricane on record to strike the island.

Rainfall totals of up to 25 inches are expected across parts of Jamaica and southwest Haiti through Tuesday, with the Tiburon Peninsula facing possible peaks of 35 inches. Eastern Cuba could see as much as 8 inches as the storm moves closer midweek. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warns that communities could be cut off by extensive damage to roads and buildings.

Jamaica’s nearly 3 million residents are being urged to prepare for widespread destruction from both severe flooding and hurricane-force winds, which are likely by Sunday or Monday.

Hospitals have activated full emergency measures and stopped elective procedures to free up beds, Health Minister Christopher Tufton said. Airports remain open for now, but Transport Minister Daryl Vaz warned they are expected to shut down within 24 hours of a hurricane warning being issued.

“You have been given enough notice that [Melissa] is coming and that it could be disastrous, so take all measures to protect yourself,” Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness told residents Friday.

Eastern Cuba, the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands are expected to face worsening impacts early next week. While the United States mainland is not likely to see direct effects, rough surf and rip currents are expected along the East Coast.

Melissa is the latest storm to undergo explosive intensification in what scientists say is an increasingly common trend in a warming climate.